2016 Nedbank Challenge Betting Preview And Tips

November 11th – 13th, 2016
Gary Player C.C., Sun City,, South Africa
Par: 72 / Yardage: 7,831
Purse: $7 million with $777,770 to the winner
Defending Champion: Marc Leishman 

Favourite Watch

Henrik Stenson starts the event at 4/1, streets ahead in the betting from next nearest Alex Noren at 16/1.  Henrik comes here rested off a solo second in the WGC HSBC Champions and has unfinished business with the Nedbank after also coming solo second last year.

Doc’s Top Five Each Way Bets

Ross Fisher 18/1

Another player who didn’t play in Turkey last week and might be the better for it.  Comes in off a T6 in the WGC HSBC at Sheshan and has recent bests of a T2 at the Alfred Dunhill and solo second at the European Open.  Just pipped to the win in Sun City by Danny Willett a couple of years ago.

Thongchai Jaidee 35/1

Thongchai parachuting in for a mooch.
Thongchai is always low odds around the Gary Player Country Club because he possesses that trouble free tee to green game that allows him to poke it around carefully and mooch his way to a solid score.  A T17 in Turkey last week make it four top-30 finishes in a row and the French Open Champ might just be eyeing this one for a big payday.  Has finished no worse than ninth in the last three stagings here.

Joakim Lagergren 55/1

Lager. Close enough.
Debutant this week but the 2014 Northern Ireland Challenge Winner is now one of the hottest players on the European Tour.  Yes the fear may be that the Swede wont have the driving game for Sun City but with a formline of T6 in Turkey, T17 in Portugal, T18 at The Grove and solo fourth in Scotland I’m finding him impossible to leave off the bet sheet each way at 55/1.  He’s consistently averaging 20 birdies a week for the last month for goodness sakes!

Kiradech Aphibarnrat 66/1

Barn Rat, Roland Rat, close enough too!
Tipped the Barn Rat last week in Turkey and came up dry with a T25 but his driving should yield more dividends this week.  T12 at The Grove before that and certainly has the game for a target course where 20 under or thereabouts will get it done.  Showed that two years ago in finishing solo fifth.

Li Hao Tong 90/1

Hantong Li. Son of Bruce Li?
Finding out about Li Haotong was like trying to google the TV guide in China; it’s nigh on impossible!  What I do know is that he is the talk of the Tour inside the ropes and looked the real deal in Turkey last week finishing T2.  That broke down to a T6 fairway accuracy clip, T11 in greens hit and T19 in putting.  To non stats crunchers that is seriously impressive stuff and points to a game that can be brought anywhere. Like South Africa this week for instance!

Long Odds Glory Shots

Matteo Manassero 150/1

Definitely going to have a fiver on Matteo myself this week because he’s one of my favourite players on Tour.  Nice guy, a proven winner and a battler through the tough times.  Last week’s T17 in Turkey represented a big jump forward in form for Matteo; certainly so for three rounds (66, 68, 68).  It didn’t happen on Sunday but the young Italian now has enough miles under his belt to derive the positives from the week.  Watch this space; he will come good.

Jaco Van Zyl 125/1

 It’s hard to knock a smile out of Jaco, especially not after taking 131 putts in Turkey last week!  But hey, he’s on home soil this week and a different beast.  If the Golfing Gods do exist they’ll give Jaco a break after what happened in the final round last year.  Let’s never speak of that again!

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