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2018 BMW Championship Betting Preview And Tips

May 24th – 27th, 2018, Wentworth Club (West Course)
Virginia Water, Surrey, England
Par: 72 / Yardage: 7,284
Defending Champion: Alex Noren

GolfcentralDaily PGA Championship betting
Theresa at the opening ceremony in Wentworth yesterday.

Favourite Discussion- "On The Nose" Bet

Rory McIlroy tops the betting at 7/1 this week pursued by Tommy Fleetwood and Alex Noren.  The real value in this category looks to be between Paul Casey 14/1 and Branden Grace at 16/1. Casey has nine top-20's already this season including winning The Valspar and though he won here in 2009 hasn't played in the event since 2013. Grace on the other hand is just coming into form after a T3 at the Byron Nelson and though he hasn't been in the headlines he has only been outside the top 40 once in 13 starts this year and that was at The Players where he hit 54 greens!  With some better recent Wentworth form and improved putting Grace looks to be a canny bet in this category.

Doc's Top Five Each Way Bets

Francesco Molinari 20/1

Francesco rings his mama every night.

Fran is the Greens In Regulation king and there's nobody better at managing his ball around the golf course; both essential around Wentworth.  No surprise so to hear he has five top-9 or better finishes here in last six visits including a solo second in 2017.  One caveat I have is a sodden Wentworth which makes it even longer for the Italian. Missed the cut last time out at The Players but a horse for the course this week and worth a small each way punt at 20/1.

Paul Dunne 33/1

Dunners and all the guys support Mayo! 

Traditionally Shane Lowry has been the Irishman to watch out for at Wentworth but the more I see Paul Dunne mature, the more I like him on this type of layout.  Paul, along with Darren Reynolds, have scored top-10's in the Dominican Republic and Houston on the PGA Tour and in Spain and China on the European Tour already this year.  And I cannot for the life of me see how the European Tour didn't sanction GolfSixes as an official event and give the "win" to Dunne and Gavin Moynihan even though Tour Boss Keith Pelley spent that whole week on Instagram promoting it.  Anyway, rant aside, after a T30 on his debut at Wentworth last year I expect Paul to be up there.

Alexander Bjork 50/1

Bjork. Close enough.

It's oh so quiet for Bjork in the betting this week at 50/1 given that he's coming in off a win in China and T3 in Morocco.  Tied 14th on his debut at the West Course last year and could come into a place.  He'll take a lot of money in the each way market and is a great Draft Kings buy.

Adrian Otaegui 55/1

Adrian knocked out everyone last week.

I was at the Belgian Knockout last week and while the format left a bit to be desired, the cream rose to the top in the end with Otaegui winning his second Matchplay style event on Tour (also Paul Lawrie Matchplay 2017).  That followed a solo second in China and four more consecutive top-20 finishes on Tour and given the low key nature of the week in Belgium I fully expect Otaegui to be right up there on the leaderboard again this week.  Missed the cut last year but is a different man this time around.

Jorge Campillo 66/1


Another Spaniard trending in the right direction is Jorge Campillo. Loving watching him perform around the world this season from Oman (T4) home to Spain (T5) on to China (T3) and in Belgium last week where he progressed to the last eight.  Jorge has plenty of experience too at Wentworth but with a best of T15 two years ago the bookies don't think he'll figure.  I disagree.

Long Odds Glory Shots

Handing over money to Pablo. Damn.

You'll get a lot of long odds value for guys this week in such a star studded field.  Scrolling down the odds I see three guys there at 100/1 that catch my eye.  The mercurial Pablo Larrazabal had a great early season and is still playing well.  He also is something of a Wentworth expert with three top-15's in his last five visits.
Joakim Lagergren is also way overpriced at 100/1 after winning in Sicily.  The order is here on Tour and the bookies are slow to realise it.
Watch out too for Mike Lorenzo Vera this week at 100/1. No course form but playing well. 

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Well well well, what are we to make of the "World Golf Series", a new Tour financed by British-based World Golf Group which is threatening to blow the PGA and European Tours out of the water?

The group are proposing to host 18 events per year worldwide each with a prize pot of $20 million, $9 million more than the current richest event on the PGA Tour.

Could the European Tour Be Willing To Work With The World Golf Series

Such a figure would dwarf the prize money currently on offer on the game’s richest circuit, the U.S. PGA Tour, whose biggest purse this season is $11 million.

The Chief Commercial Officer of World Golf Group is Richard Marsh but as of yesterday he would not comment on the proposal, adding fuel to the notion that news of this Tour was leaked before the full plan could be unveiled.

But if this new Tour takes place how will the PGA and European Tour's react? One weapon they will have is likely to be that the World Golf Tour will not be eligible to award world ranking points. And as we know ranking points are how eligibility for the four major championships are decided.

The PGA Tour look highly unlikely to welcome any threat to the status quo.  The European Tour on the other hand, which struggles outside of the crutch the Rolex Series provides, might just be willing to sit down and talk with these guys.

And what about securing a big name like Tiger Woods to play this new Tour if it kicks off in 2020? He's in his forties, has a stature far beyond world ranking points with little need for them, and would bring others with him?

It'll be interesting to see what happens.

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Irish golf fans got their clearest indication yet that Tiger Woods will play in the 2018 Irish Open at Ballyliffin Golf Club when golfers spotted his security detail carrying out a reconnaissance of the course yesterday.

The three men attempted to blend in, even posing as greens staff, but were easily spotted by locals.

Here's the video.

Woods confirmed his entry for The Open at Carnoustie two weeks after and the hope is now that he'll join Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm at the $7 million Rolex Series event.

"Rory is committed to helping build the strongest field we can get and I am sure he has taken the time to chat with the guys on the PGA Tour informally," Tournament director Simon Alliss told the Irish Independant.

The Irish Open takes place on July 5th 2018. Details here.

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2018 Byron Nelson Championship Betting Preview And Tips

May 17th – 20th, 2018
Trinity Forest Golf Club, Dallas, Texas
Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,380
Purse: $7.7 million with $1,386,000 to the winner
Defending: Billy Horschel

GolfcentralDaily Jimmy Walker Funny Pic
2018 Byron Nelson Betting Preview and Tips

The Byron Nelson moves to a new venue at Trinity Forest Golf Club and its not your typical PGA Tour layout.  The Coore and Crenshaw designed treeless roughless inland links (not unlike Streamsong in Florida) is a different test and if the wind blows, as it usually does, it should be a reasonable test. At 7380 yards and par 71, distance wont be an issue this week and opens up the event to an underdog winning.  So the message is caution when putting on a bet pre tournament; read the tips and follow the progress of those mentioned in rounds one and two.  Then strike!

Favourite Watch

Local favourite Jordan Spieth tops the betting at 5/1 and this tournament means everything to him.  After thirds in Houston and Augusta, a T41 at The Players was disappointing and highlighted a worrying glitch in the matrix when putting.

Doc's Top 5 Each Way Bets At The 2018 Byron Nelson

Matt Kuchar 14/1

The time Kuck locked Butch in the portaloo!

Not the most imaginative of tips but all the signs point to Kuch having a big week in Dallas. Gears himself to be in top form at this time of the year and a T17 at Sawgrass was encouraging.  We all know his prowess in wind on links type terrain and with his course management skills looks a solid shout in an event (not venue) he perennially  does well in.

Sergio Garcia 20/1

After finishing near last at The Players and missing consecutive cuts in Texas and The Masters, Sergio finds himself out at 20/1 this week and I'm wondering is his mind on the job or at home with baby.  But on a mock links where the only defence are bunkers and wind, where they wont ramp up the green speeds past 11 on the stimp because of that, you have to fancy Sergio's skillset.  IF his mind is not on smelly nappies.

Jimmy Walker 20/1

Great to see Jimmy Walker playing so well again and he really came up on the rails to secure a T2 at The Players last week.  That followed a solo 4th at the Texas Open and T20 at The Masters.  His battle with Lyme Disease has been well documented and by his own admission it can and does strike at any time but if he has a week of well being, don’t rule out a return to the winners enclosure.

Adam Scott 25/1

Anyone who regularly follows my tips will know that I pay close attention to players who "suddenly find the key" and break a cycle of poor form with a good result.  And when that guy is Adam Scott, and we are heading to a virgin, windy, linksy, "play through the air' venue then of course you have to fancy the Australian.  T11 at The Players after poor weeks at the Wells Fargo and Texas Open and 10 years after his win in the event looks well worth an each way squeak at 25/1.

Marc Leishman 25/1

Poor form at Sawgrass and Hilton Head sees Marc slip down the odds with the bookies (who incidentally are keeping the odds very tight this week).  But as we've seen from The Farmers, The Arnie and The Masters Leishman, on his day, is the real deal.  Another with the game to contend at Trinity Forest in the hot and windy conditions forecast.

Long Odds Glory Shots

Every course is new to Satoshi Kodaira this year on the PGA Tour so maybe the playing field will be levelled for him this week.  Looked so impressive at the RBC Heritage and I see him at 80/1 this week.  Ryan Palmer 66/1 found some form again carding rounds of 67, 69, 69 last week at Sawgrass and is worth tracking.

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Following Webb Simpson's win at the Players Championship there has been renewed discussion regarding his method of putting being a legal loophole in the anchoring ban.

webb simpson keegan bradley putting stroke
Webb Simpson and Keegan Bradley now both using a belly putter in an arm lock style.

Simpson's arm locking of a belly putter method is similar to that used by Matt Kuchar and is growing increasingly popular with Keegan Bradley also enjoying success using it.  Bernhard Langer was the first to use a variation of the controversial technique when he beat the yips to win the 1993 Masters.

Related post: Webb Simpson's winning WITB and stats.

Whatever the arguments regarding the method, the USGA have been at pains to declare it is perfectly legal because the arm is a free moving part of the body and not an anchoring point.

Purists think the arm braced method should be covered in the ban because it creates an almost fixed angle between the club, wrists and arms resulting in less chance of breakdown during the stroke.

The USGA and R&A say this method allows the hands and arms to swing without restriction. As long as the club is not braced above the elbow joint and both hands on the grip are touching it is not deemed anchoring.

Whatever your opinion it is worth remembering back to when Keegan Bradley won the 2011 PGA Championship with a belly putter and Webb Simpson then won the U.S. Open in 2012 with his.  Both those events arguably precipitated the anchoring ban and now in 2018 the same two players are enjoying a putting resurgence using the arm braced method.

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Well done to Webb Simpson on winning The Players Championship. The form was there, it was coming; unfortunately we tipped him a week early at his home event in Quail Hollow.

A quick look at Webb's winning stats at Sawgrass reveal some very interesting observations.

Simpson hit 46 fairways, topping the driving accuracy stats.  But his average driving distance of 280.5 yards was 71st and dead last of those who made the cut.  Surely there's a lesson in there when we consider golf's all out push for distance and the calls to roll back the distance the ball travels.

The North Carolina native hit 55 greens, T5 in the stat and using a belly length 'legally anchored' Odyssey Tank Cruiser V-Line arm putting stroke averaged 27.0 putts per round and 108 putts total.  Simpson went a cumulative +3, -8, -13 on the par 3's, 4's, 5's respectively and matched two eagles with 23 birdies.

Webb Simpson Winning Highlights Video

Webb Simpson Winning WITB

Driver: Titleist 917D2 (9.5 degrees) with a Graphite Design Tour AD IZ-5X shaft.
3 Wood: TaylorMade M2 (15 degrees) with a Mitsubishi Tensei Blue CK 70TX shaft.
5 Wood: Titleist 913Fd (18 degrees) with a UST Mamiya Proforce VTS 8TX shaft.
Hybrids: Titleist 913Hd (20 degrees) with a Graphite Design Tour AD-DI 105X Hybrid shaft.
Hybrid: Titleist 915Hd (23.5 degrees) with a True Temper Dynamic Gold Tour Issue X100 shaft.
Irons: Titleist 718 MB (5-PW) with True Temper Dynamic Gold Tour Issue X100 shafts.
Wedges: Titleist Vokey SM7 (54-14F, 60-06K) with True Temper Dynamic Gold Tour Issue S400 shafts.
Putter: Odyssey Tank Cruiser V-Line

And finally spare a thought for Tiger Woods.  He finished T11 but hunted down Webb Simpson for long periods and were it not for some errant spinning wedges could have got close. Heading towards the meat of the season Tiger IS close.

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By Jade Galapon

In terms of betting on the recent Masters tournament, one of the most notable aspects before the tournament got underway was the raft of bets placed on Tiger Woods. The American’s good form in the lead up to the Masters got fans and punters into a bit of a stir, with Woods going in as favourite with some bookmakers.

The problem with it is that, in a way, it became a self-fulfilling prophecy: Woods played well for a few weeks, so punters started to back him. The more that he was backed, the more it became a newsworthy story and, once again, more punters would bet on Woods. This caused the odds to drop dramatically and eventually he would become favourite, causing even more punters to back him in the belief that he was back at the very top of his game.

Obviously, Woods did not deliver at the Masters in the way that punters and fans hoped, with plenty no doubt regretting taking the 8/1 betting odds offered on the eve of the tournament. But what about doing the opposite? E.g. having a look at some player’s odds that are way too big before the next major? And, whose odds may drop by the time the US Open (14th-17th June)? Here are three that could fit the bill nicely:

Mark Leishman 80/1 William Hill

Leishman was a couple of daft moments away from having an excellent 2018 Masters tournament. In the end, he gained a ninth-place finish, which was his fifth top ten at the Majors. However, it could have been so much better for the Australian. He was arguably one of the best players over the four days, but a mixture of bad luck and, at times, poor shot selection, cost him dearly. He will learn from it though, and he is still one of the form players going into the business part of the golf season. He is also a much, much better player than those odds of 80/1 suggest. Leishman is just 50/1 with several other major bookmakers.

Tony Finau 110/1 Betfair

Ok. This is obviously a bit of a longshot, but odds in triple figures for a player of Finau’s quality should not be dismissed. He has struggled to establish himself at the Majors, but snuck into the Top 10 at the Masters this year. That’s part of the reason he is 50/1 with some other bookmakers. The odds of 110/1 by Betfair look brilliant value for each-way betting, but you can also cover your bet with this Betfair £100 free bet bonus.

Henrik Stenson 40/1 Betfred

The only Major winner on this list, Stenson is undoubtedly a class act. His form was pretty iffy in 2017, but he looks to be climbing back to somewhere near his best. Fifth at the Masters, fourth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and second in the WGC:  HSBC Champions all suggests the Swede is starting to reach the level of consistency that made him one of the world’s best a couple of years ago. That level would constitute having odds a lot lower than 40/1.

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