Being a stats nerd I just had to take a deeper look into the Dustin Johnson dominance "thing". I wanted to find out why has he become borderline unbeatable now over pretty much every course you put him on and see does he really have a chance at the 2017 Masters.

Dustin Johnson 2017 US Masters stats
A look at Dustin Johnson's stats and improvement in 2017 is mind blowing.


What I found was frankly amazing. The stats say that Johnson WILL win The Masters on two conditions; (a) that he plays the "average" way he has been playing of late and (b) assuming no one player has a stand out week.

Well, you might say that someone always has a standout week but DJ has now won three on the bounce with a T2 and a 3rd in two of the three before that. If the other guys are standing out, they haven't been doing it of late

Lets look at Dustin at the Masters to see where the traditional weaknesses might be.


Leaving 2014 aside (don't mention the war) DJ's Masters record has been improving; T13, T6 and T4 in 2016.  The key to those results? Putting. Dustin knows the greens at Augusta.

The glaring weakness? Greens in regulation.  T42, T49 and T37 in the stat hitting 42 or 43 greens just doesn't get you a Green Jacket.  Last year Danny Willett hit 48, Jordan Spieth hit 52 in 2015, Bubba hit 50 in 2014.

So in order to win The Masters Johnson needs to up his Greens In Regulation game.

Now look at this. DJ's GIR and scrambling stats from 2016 compared to this year.



Just look at GIR% in 2016 and 2017. DJ has from 67.82% to 75.25%, 43rd to 2nd in the rankings. In a game of marginal gains, that is a monumental improvement in iron play.

Now look at what happens when Johnson misses a green in 2017 compared to 2016.  He has gone from 75th to 8th in strokes gained around the green.  Scrambling from the fringe, he has jumped from 47th to first and just look at the scrambling from 20 to 30 yards stats while picturing in your head the greens complexes at Augusta. Johnson has jumped from a 46.67% success rate to a 75% up and down chance, from 139th to third.  That type of improvement is unheard of. Unless you are Lance Armstrong.

If the stats are to be believed, you are looking here, on your "average" day at Dustin Johnson winning the Masters. And it wont even be close.


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