2014 US Open Championship Betting Preview Tips And Predictions

The 2014 US Open from Pinehurst No.2 is almost upon us.  Here are my top betting tips, a look at the pundits favourites, some guys who did...

The 2014 US Open from Pinehurst No.2 is almost upon us.  Here are my top betting tips, a look at the pundits favourites, some guys who didn't make the grade, long odds glory shots, my Pinehurst course preview and all the recent past US Open leaderboards. You ready? Lets go!

Doc’s Top 5 To Watch

The five best each way value bets in the field and why.

Jason Dufner 33/1

I think Jason Dufner is coming to the realization that the US Open and US PGA are going to be the strong suit of his Major career.  His PGA Championship form of a win and two other top fives since 2010 put to one side for a moment,  Jason equalled or bettered his score in every round at Olympic Club in 2012 on his way to a T4, then stormed through the field on Sunday at Merion last year, shooting a 67 for another T4.  I think the recent solo second at Colonial and top 20 at The Memorial are significant in that Dufner is coming into form after a nondescript early season.

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Jason Day 30/1

Tied 37th at The Memorial recently which did start alarms ringing but since 2011 Day seems to have true grit when it comes to Majors.  Second to Rory at Congressional in 2011 and tied second again at Merion last season were both fine performances to stand alongside his two top-3’s at The Masters and top-10’s at the PGA Championship.  Hampered so badly for most of the season with a thumb injury, I’m sure those odds would be halved had he stayed fit after his WGC Matchplay win.  Day is a gamble for Pinehurst, but then again every bet is.


Lee Westwood 30/1

The debate as to whether Lee Westwood will win a Major can rumble on all it wants (I personally think he will nab one) but all we need is a top six to profit each way at Pinehurst.  He has been in the top 15 for the past three US Opens and was on the podium (3rd) at Torrey Pines in 2008 and (T3) at Congressional in 2011.  Contended for long periods at The Masters eventually finishing 7th, got his win in Malaysia and a good T6 at The Players.  Driving the ball so much better of late but it’s the short game that will decide his fate this week.


Hideki Matsuyama 33/1 to 35/1

A super 67 like Jason Dufner in the final round at Merion last year saw the young Hideki finish T10 and made GCD punters a nice chunk of wonga.  We then cashed in again after his T6 at The Open.  A really solid head on his 22 year old shoulders, I wasn’t at all surprised Hideki won the Memorial; Quail Hollow represented the turning point after a series of missed cuts and he then went T38 there, T23 at The Players and T10 at Colonial before the win. Still decent odds but nothing like we got last year.


Jim Furyk 33/1

Almost to a man everyone who has played a practice round at the newly restored Pinehurst No.2 has said that if you cannot hit the fairways you are going to be embarrassed.  I think Jim will hit more than most which at least gives him a chance.  Since winning in 2003 Jim has a T2 at Winged Foot in 2006, another T2 at Oakmont in 2007 and a T4 at Olympic Club in 2012.  His value is strengthened by bringing a good formline in this year with seconds at The Players and Wells Fargo and great showings at the Heritage and Valero. T19 at Memorial last time out, I think Furyk will have a good US Open.

Pundits Favourites

The guys getting the most tips from the top pundits

Rory McIlroy 9/1

It all depends  which Rory shows up at Pinehurst.  The one that blitzed the field at Congressional in 2011 and won the BMW PGA Championship in fine style a few weeks back or the other one that missed the cut in 2010, 2012 and never really contended at Merion.
I’m saying that superstar Rory will show up this year, even if he is extremely short odds at 9/1.  You know a lot of people said to me prior to Rory’s win at Wentworth that he wasn’t playing well and nothing could have been further from the truth.  Since the WGC HSBC Champions in Shanghai last November Rory has ten top-9 finishes from 12 events.  The other two were a T25 at Doral and a T15 at Muirfield Village.  Now that is impressive! Justified favourite.

Jordan Spieth 25/1

It looks like everyone who is anyone in the punditry game is tipping up Jordan Spieth for a great US Open, but I’m one of those who needs more convincing.  On the plus side is a brilliant T2 at The Masters and T4 at The Players with solid top 20’s at Colonial and Memorial.  On the minus side is a lack of US Open experience though he did win low amateur in 2012.  It will herald a new heavyweight if he wins at Pinehurst, but I will be surprised.

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Sweating In The Paddock

The guys who didn’t make my top 5 and why.

Phil Mickelson 16/1

Phil has a great US Open record and knows Pinehurst well; remember the duel with Payne Stewart in 1999?  Also brought good form to Merion last year when he tied second but so far this year there has been nothing since a T2 in Abu Dahbi; no top 10 and missed cuts at Augusta and Sawgrass.  On paper he has the ideal short game to really contend at Pinehurst and has done so in the past but he’ll need to discover some magic off the tee very very quickly.

Sergio Garcia 33/1

Brought an immense formline into The Masters and missed the cut.  Reversed that slightly with a third at The Players but was disappointing at the Open de Espana and withdrew from the BMW PGA after the first round.  Serg tied third at Pinehurst in 2005 and has top 10’s at Bethpage and Congressional since but just doesn’t make my top-5.

Long Odds Glory Bets

Fun each way bets at whopping odds with no blame or expectation attached.

Ernie Els 80/1

Why is Ernie Els 80/ 1 given his Major pedigree?  Probably because he hasn’t had a strokeplay top 10 finish since winning the BMW Championship last season.  A T19 at Muirfield Village however represents a chink of light for the two time US Open Champion and he still has a knack of contending in the big ones.  The Big Easy has played the past two US Opens at Pinehurst, missing the cut in 1999 and finishing T15 in 2005.  Decent recent showings at this tournament too with a solo third at Pebble when GMac won, ninth at Olympic in 2012 and T4 last year at Merion.

Victor Dubuisson 100/1

Victor Dubuisson 100/1.  More a bit of fun than anything more substantial here.  US Open debutant but has the demeanour of the type of guy that might like the carnage that’s involved here.  We know from the WGC Matchplay that Victor can whack it close from just about any greenside bush and he’s just returned after a long layoff with a T2 in Sweden.  It will be interesting to see how he fares.

Pinehurst No.2 Course Preview

My complete bluffers guide to the course



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Past US Open Leaderboards

These may help you with your own predictions

2013 Merion
1 Justin Rose 71 69 71 70 E +1 281 $1,440,000
T2 Jason Day 70 74 68 71 +1 +3 283 $696,104
T2 Phil Mickelson 67 72 70 74 +4 +3 283 $696,104
T4 Jason Dufner 74 71 73 67 -3 +5 285 $291,406
T4 Ernie Els 71 72 73 69 -1 +5 285 $291,406
T4 Billy Horschel 72 67 72 74 +4 +5 285 $291,406
T4 Hunter Mahan 72 69 69 75 +5 +5 285 $291,406
T8 Luke Donald 68 72 71 75 +5 +6 286 $210,006
T8 Steve Stricker 71 69 70 76 +6 +6 286 $210,006
T10 Hideki Matsuyama 71 75 74 67 -3 +7 287 $168,530
T10 Nicolas Colsaerts 69 72 74 72 +2 +7 287 $168,530
T10 Gonzalo Fernandez-Casta 71 72 72 72 +2 +7 287 $168,530
T10 Rickie Fowler 70 76 67 74 +4 +7 287 $168,530
14 Charl Schwartzel 70 71 69 78 +8 +8 288 $144,444
T15 Lee Westwood 70 77 69 73 +3 +9 289 $132,453
T15 John Senden 70 71 74 74 +4 +9 289 $132,453

2012 Olympic Club
1 Webb Simpson 72 73 68 68 -2 +1 281 $1,440,000
T2 Michael Thompson 66 75 74 67 -3 +2 282 $695,916
T2 Graeme McDowell 69 72 68 73 +3 +2 282 $695,916
T4 David Toms 69 70 76 68 -2 +3 283 $276,841
T4 Padraig Harrington 74 70 71 68 -2 +3 283 $276,841
T4 John Peterson 71 70 72 70 E +3 283 $276,841
T4 Jason Dufner 72 71 70 70 E +3 283 $276,841
T4 Jim Furyk 70 69 70 74 +4 +3 283 $276,841
9 Ernie Els 75 69 68 72 +2 +4 284 $200,280
T10 Casey Wittenberg 71 77 67 70 E +5 285 $163,594
T10 Retief Goosen 75 70 69 71 +1 +5 285 $163,594
T10 Kevin Chappell 74 71 68 72 +2 +5 285 $163,594
T10 John Senden 72 73 68 72 +2 +5 285 $163,594
T10 Lee Westwood 73 72 67 73 +3 +5 285 $163,594
T15 K.J. Choi 73 70 74 69 -1 +6 286 $118,969
T15 Steve Stricker 76 68 73 69 -1 +6 286 $118,969
T15 Adam Scott 76 70 70 70 E +6 286 $118,969
T15 Aaron Watkins 72 71 72 71 +1 +6 286 $118,969
T15 Martin Kaymer 74 71 69 72 +2 +6 286 $118,969
T15 Fredrik Jacobson 72 71 68 75 +5 +6 286 $118,9692011


2011  Congressional
1 Rory McIlroy -16 65 66 68 69 268 $1,440,000 0
2 Jason Day -8 71 72 65 68 276 $865,000 330
T3 Kevin Chappell -6 76 67 69 66 278 $364,241 147
T3 Robert Garrigus -6 70 70 68 70 278 $364,241 147
T3 Lee Westwood -6 75 68 65 70 278 $364,241 0
T3 Y.E. Yang -6 68 69 70 71 278 $364,241 147
T7 Peter Hanson -5 72 71 69 67 279 $228,416 0
T7 Sergio Garcia -5 69 71 69 70 279 $228,416 97
T9 Charl Schwartzel -4 68 74 72 66 280 $192,962 85
T9 Louis Oosthuizen -4 69 73 71 67 280 $192,962 85
T11 Brandt Snedeker -3 70 70 72 69 281 $163,083 72
T11 Davis Love III -3 70 71 70 70 281 $163,083 72
T11 Heath Slocum -3 71 70 70 70 281 $163,083 72
T14 Graeme McDowell -2 70 74 69 69 282 $129,517 59
T14 Webb Simpson -2 75 71 66 70 282 $129,517 59
T14 Bo Van Pelt -2 76 67 68 71 282 $129,517 59
T14 Matt Kuchar -2 72 68 69 73 282 $129,517 59
T14 Freddie Jacobson -2 74 69 66 73 282 $129,517 59


2010 Pebble
1 Graeme McDowell 71 68 71 74 +3 E 284 $1,350,000
2 Gregory Havret 73 71 69 72 +1 +1 285 $810,000
3 Ernie Els 73 68 72 73 +2 +2 286 $480,687
T4 Phil Mickelson 75 66 73 73 +2 +3 287 $303,119
T4 Tiger Woods 74 72 66 75 +4 +3 287 $303,119
T6 Matt Kuchar 74 72 74 68 -3 +4 288 $228,255
T6 Davis Love III 75 74 68 71 E +4 288 $228,255
T8 Brandt Snedeker 75 74 69 71 E +5 289 $177,534
T8 Martin Kaymer 74 71 72 72 +1 +5 289 $177,534
T8 Alex Cejka 70 72 74 73 +2 +5 289 $177,534
T8 Dustin Johnson 71 70 66 82 +11 +5 289 $177,534
T12 Sean O'Hair 76 71 70 73 +2 +6 290 $143,714
T12 Tim Clark 72 72 72 74 +3 +6 290 $143,714
T14 Ben Curtis 78 70 75 68 -3 +7 291 $127,779
T14 Justin Leonard 72 73 73 73 +2 +7 291 $127,779

2009 Bethpage BLack
1 Lucas Glover 69 64 70 73 +3 -4 276 $1,350,000
T2 Phil Mickelson 69 70 69 70 E -2 278 $559,830
T2 David Duval 67 70 70 71 +1 -2 278 $559,830
T2 Ricky Barnes 67 65 70 76 +6 -2 278 $559,830
5 Ross Fisher 70 68 69 72 +2 -1 279 $289,146
T6 Tiger Woods 74 69 68 69 -1 E 280 $233,350
T6 Soren Hansen 70 71 70 69 -1 E 280 $233,350
T6 Hunter Mahan 72 68 68 72 +2 E 280 $233,350
9 Henrik Stenson 73 70 70 68 -2 +1 281 $194,794
T10 Rory McIlroy 72 70 72 68 -2 +2 282 $154,600
T10 Matt Bettencourt 75 67 71 69 -1 +2 282 $154,600
T10 Sergio Garcia 70 70 72 70 E +2 282 $154,600
T10 Ryan Moore 70 69 72 71 +1 +2 282 $154,600
T10 Stephen Ames 74 66 70 72 +2 +2 282 $154,600
T10 Mike Weir 64 70 74 74 +4 +2 282 $154,600

2008 Torrey Pines
1 x-Tiger Woods 72 68 70 73 71 -67 -1 283 $1,350,000
2 Rocco Mediate 69 71 72 71 71 -66 -1 283 $810,000
3 Lee Westwood 70 71 70 73 - +2 E 284 $491,995
T4 Robert Karlsson 70 70 75 71 - E +2 286 $307,303
T4 D.J. Trahan 72 69 73 72 - +1 +2 286 $307,303
T6 Miguel Angel Jimenez 75 66 74 72 - +1 +3 287 $220,686
T6 John Merrick 73 72 71 71 - E +3 287 $220,686
T6 Carl Pettersson 71 71 77 68 - -3 +3 287 $220,686
T9 Eric Axley 69 79 71 69 - -2 +4 288 $160,769
T9 Geoff Ogilvy 69 73 72 74 - +3 +4 288 $160,769
T9 Heath Slocum 75 74 74 65 - -6 +4 288 $160,769
T9 Brandt Snedeker 76 73 68 71 - E +4 288 $160,769
T9 Camilo Villegas 73 71 71 73 - +2 +4 288 $160,769
T14 Stewart Cink 72 73 77 67 - -4 +5 289 $122,159
T14 Ernie Els 70 72 74 73 - +2 +5 289 $122,159
T14 Retief Goosen 76 69 77 67 - -4 +5 289 $122,159
T14 Rod Pampling 74 70 75 70 - -1 +5 289 $122,159

2007 Oakmont
1 Angel Cabrera 69 71 76 69 -1 +5 285 $1,260,000
T2 Jim Furyk 71 75 70 70 E +6 286 $611,336
T2 Tiger Woods 71 74 69 72 +2 +6 286 $611,336
4 Niclas Fasth 71 71 75 70 E +7 287 $325,923
T5 David Toms 72 72 73 72 +2 +9 289 $248,948
T5 Bubba Watson 70 71 74 74 +4 +9 289 $248,948
T7 Nick Dougherty 68 77 74 71 +1 +10 290 $194,245
T7 Jerry Kelly 74 71 73 72 +2 +10 290 $194,245
T7 Scott Verplank 73 71 74 72 +2 +10 290 $194,245
T10 Justin Rose 71 71 73 76 +6 +11 291 $154,093
T10 Stephen Ames 73 69 73 76 +6 +11 291 $154,093
T10 Paul Casey 77 66 72 76 +6 +11 291 $154,093
T13 Lee Janzen 73 73 73 73 +3 +12 292 $124,706
T13 Hunter Mahan 73 74 72 73 +3 +12 292 $124,706
T13 Steve Stricker 75 73 68 76 +6 +12 292 $124,706
T13 Aaron Baddeley 72 70 70 80 +10 +12 292 $124,706

2006 Winged Foot
1 Geoff Ogilvy 71 70 72 72 +2 +5 285 $1,225,000
T2 Jim Furyk 70 72 74 70 E +6 286 $501,249
T2 Colin Montgomerie 69 71 75 71 +1 +6 286 $501,249
T2 Phil Mickelson 70 73 69 74 +4 +6 286 $501,249
5 Padraig Harrington 73 69 74 71 +1 +7 287 $255,642
T6 Nick O'Hern 75 70 74 69 -1 +8 288 $183,255
T6 Jeff Sluman 74 73 72 69 -1 +8 288 $183,255
T6 Steve Stricker 70 69 76 73 +3 +8 288 $183,255
T6 Mike Weir 71 74 71 72 +2 +8 288 $183,255
T6 Vijay Singh 71 74 70 73 +3 +8 288 $183,255
T6 Kenneth Ferrie 71 70 71 76 +6 +8 288 $183,255
T12 Ryuji Imada 76 73 69 71 +1 +9 289 $131,670
T12 Luke Donald 78 69 70 72 +2 +9 289 $131,670
T12 Ian Poulter 74 71 70 74 +4 +9 289 $131,670
15 Paul Casey 77 72 72 69 -1 +10 290 $116,735

2005 Pinehurst
1 Michael Campbell 71 69 71 69 -1 E 280 $1,170,000
2 Tiger Woods 70 71 72 69 -1 +2 282 $700,000
T3 Sergio Garcia 71 69 75 70 E +5 285 $320,039
T3 Tim Clark 76 69 70 70 E +5 285 $320,039
T3 Mark Hensby 71 68 72 74 +4 +5 285 $320,039
T6 Davis Love III 77 70 70 69 -1 +6 286 $187,813
T6 Rocco Mediate 67 74 74 71 +1 +6 286 $187,813
T6 Vijay Singh 70 70 74 72 +2 +6 286 $187,813
T9 Nick Price 72 71 72 72 +2 +7 287 $150,834
T9 Arron Oberholser 76 67 71 73 +3 +7 287 $150,834
T11 Bob Estes 70 73 75 70 E +8 288 $123,857
T11 Corey Pavin 73 72 70 73 +3 +8 288 $123,857
T11 Peter Hedblom 77 66 70 75 +5 +8 288 $123,857
T11 Retief Goosen 68 70 69 81 +11 +8 288 $123,857
T15 Stewart Cink 73 74 73 69 -1 +9 289 $88,120
T15 Fred Couples 71 74 74 70 E +9 289 $88,120
T15 Ernie Els 71 76 72 70 E +9 289 $88,120
T15 Ryuji Imada 77 68 73 71 +1 +9 289 $88,120
T15 John Cook 71 76 70 72 +2 +9 289 $88,120
T15 Peter Jacobsen 72 73 69 75 +5 +9 289 $88,120
T15 K.J. Choi 69 70 74 76 +6 +9 289 $88,120
T15 David Toms 70 72 70 77 +7 +9 289 $88,120

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