Chambers Bay, University Place, Washington.
JUNE 15-21, 2015

It's 2015 US Open time and as always with my betting tips, the emphasis is on finding value for money bets at odds that will pay out each way. Whilst making the case for the favourite I rarely advise betting on a player at odds of less than 10/1 pre tournament. As always bet responsibly and good luck!

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Favourite: Rory McIlroy 11/2


I won’t insult your intelligence explaining why Rory McIlroy is the short odds favourite to add another US Open to his 2011 win at Congressional, but will point out a few stats.  Since that win Rory has gone MC, T41, T23 at the US Open although he did everything well but hole his putts in 2014.  Twice a winner in Dubai and Quail Hollow this season, and finished solo fourth at The Masters.  Missed cuts in his last two starts at Wentworth and in Ireland but don’t let that worry you; he hadn’t a second to bless himself at either event.  This is a man destined to win many Majors, is arguably the best player in the field, and Chambers Bay would seem custom built to suit him, but odds of 11/2 are much too short for this punter.


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Doc’s Top Five Expert Tips


Justin Rose 18/1

I’m beginning to think it’s not considered fashionable for bookies to quote Justin Rose at short odds but let me assure you he is the real deal and we punters shouldn’t complain about odds of 18/1.  Winner at the attritional Merion in 2013 and recovered from a wobbly start to finish T12 last year.  Nobody has hit more fairways and greens and greens than Rose in his last three US Opens and this year for me he’s even putting better.  T2 at The Masters, winner in New Orleans and solo second after a playoff last time out at The Memorial?  I’ll bite your hand off with those odds of 18/1.


Henrik Stenson 25/1

Henrik has finished in the top 30 in his last five US Open appearances.  Rock solid and dependable off the tee, the Swede will put himself in all the right places and with Gareth Lord on the bag, course management will not be an issue.  He has been in the top-12 greens in regulation hitters in nine of his last 10 starts this season.

An examination of Henrik’s tied fourth at Pinehurst in 2014 shows he was eighth in driving accuracy, first in greens in regulation and T57 in putting.  If the flat-stick has been the chink in the armour this season, the massive and complicated greens complexes at Chambers Bay may just be the leveller that gets Henrik his best shot at a US Open yet.  If you are still not convinced, throw in the stat that he has played nine Majors since 2013 and finished in the top four in four of them.

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Rickie Fowler 18/1

Tied 10th at Merion, tied second at Pinehurst and Rickie Fowler is developing into a big time US Open performer.  Not only that but in his last five Majors he has gone T5, T2, T2, T3, T12 which is very tidy indeed.  The knockers will point to a missed cut at Memorial and T30 in Ireland, but I took away a best in the field putting performance on the links at Royal County Down; a stat that could be vital on the fescue this week.  Another who will benefit from that the bit more space off the tee than is normal at the US Open, just as he did in winning at The Players.


Brooks Koepka 50/1

Since I first saw Brooks play on the European Challenge Tour I thought this guy has the game for a US Open.  Yes it may still be a bit early but I think he deserves serious consideration at this year’s staging.  A winner in Phoenix earlier this season, Brooks hit more greens than anyone at the Byron Nelson recently and is back at the head of the leaderboard at the St Jude.  His tied fourth in Pinehurst in 2014 shows he has the temperament for this gruelling test and he will benefit more than most at the extra room off the tee at Chambers Bay.  Long off the tee and underrated with the putter, Brooks has a great each way chance.

Brandt Snedeker 66/1

There has been a quiet assurance to Brandt Snedeker in 2015 that I have not seen in my years as a tipster.  His stats and form are converging perfectly as he heads to Chambers Bay and I believe a US Open is his best shot at a Major.  Without ever ruffling feathers, Snedeker has been in the top 20 in his last four US Opens including a T9 at Pinehurst last year.  A winner already this year by the sea at Pebble Beach, Sneds has found form again with a T2 at Colonial and T6 at the Byron Nelson and on both occasions finished in the top three in total putting.  One good week with his irons and Brandt Snedeker will be right in the hunt at Chambers Bay.

Long Odds Glory Shots


J.B. Holmes 80/1

Nothing at the Masters, Players or Wells Fargo but keep the faith in J.B. Holmes because with great power comes great chances at a US Open.  J.B. played at Bethpage in 2009 but didn’t tee it up again at a US Open until Pinehurst last year where he finished T17.  Huge positives to be taken from a win in Houston and close shaves at a tough Doral and Torrey Pines.  Watch his progress after day one.

Luke Donald  90/1

This is a “nothing to lose” US Open for Luke Donald.  I think he’s proud of the fact that he has gained his place in the field via old school sectional qualifying and might appreciate this visit that little extra for it.  I spent some time watching Luke recently and the sequencing of his swing is back as good as ever.  Missed US Open cuts in 2014 and 2012 but tied eighth at Merion with a T2 clip in fairways hit and a T4 in putting.  That was the staple of the Luke Donald game, and will be again I promise before the season is out.  The bookies don’t think it will be this week, and while I am a little concerned that he's been over exerting recently, I think there’s enough in what I have seen to warrant a squeak each way.

Brendon Todd 150/1

Underrated PGA Tourist, Todd slipped in form after a solo fourth at Hilton Head but played well at The Memorial before falling to 17th in the final standings.  Todd’s weakness is distance off the tee, but a rock solid Chambers Bay may negate this somewhat because every other aspect of his game is rock solid.  T4 in fairways hit and T6 in greens at Muirfield Village lead me to believe he can better his US Open debut of T17 last year.  You will find super odds also on Brendon “To Finish In The Top 10.”


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