2015 DP World Tour Championship Betting Preview And Tips
November 19th – 22nd, 2015

Earth Course, Jumeirah Golf Estates,  Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Par: 72 / Yardage: 7,675
Purse: $8 Million with $1,514,137 to the winner
Defending Champion: Henrik Stenson

Favourites Discussion

The ‘win only’ market this week is tight.  You have Rory McIlroy at 5/1, simmering for what seems like an age now and coming off a T6 in Turkey.  Rory is a fan of Dubai (he spends a lot of his down time there) and he’s a master of the Earth Course.  Rors has only been outside the top-5 once here in six starts, won in 2012 and was also T2 last year.  The R2D leader is justifiable favourite.

The Earth Course gives guys who are maybe not the greatest putters a chance to compete but one thing you definitely do need here is length. In 2014 each of the top-5 were in the top five in the driving distance stats (all over 300 yards). Henrik Stenson at 6/1 in the betting is long but what sets him apart, and the reason he has won here for the last two years, is a tremendous greens in regulation game.  The Swede has been in the top-3 greens hitters in four of his last five starts, and seven of his last 10.  Nobody hit more greens than him at Lake Malaren last week on his way to a T3 finish, and when you add a T2 at the PGA Tour Championship and solo seconds at the Deutsche Bank and Barclays, Henrik is just an irresistible ‘on the nose’ prospect.

Rounding out the big three at 7/1 is Justin Rose and with a T2 in 2014 and solo 2nd in 2012, he can also puff his chest out and feel confident.  T7 at the BMW Masters last week even without his best stuff (especially on Friday) and coming off a win in Hong Kong and T2 in Atlanta at the PGA Tour’s finale. It’s a matter of taking your pick!

Doc’s Top Five Players To Watch at The 2015 DP World Tour Championship

Patrick Reed 16/1

Debut at the Earth Course and Pat has been knocking at the door since a T4 at the Deutsche Bank on the PGA Tour.  Beaten by Kristoffer Broberg at Lake Malaren last week but when you put that solo second with his T3 in Hong Kong, there’s a consistency and confidence there that suggests Reed will not stop until he gets his win.  The big unknown is how he will handle this track, but game-wise, everything is in its slot.

Victor Dubuisson 25/1

There is a slight concern that Victor is fragile emotionally both from the high of that win in Turkey and the low of the horrific attacks in his home country, but I saw enough in his T17 at the BMW Masters (where he tied fifth in greens hit) to believe he can push on again this week.  All things being equal the Frenchman absolutely loves the Earth Course, it just fits his eye, and with a solo third in 2013 and T2 in 2014 all that is missing is the win. It would be a huge boost for France.

Ian Poulter 35/1

More good things from Poults at the BMW Masters, and he has now bettered his performance in each of his last four starts.  That Lake Malaren T11 saw very tidy stats in driving, irons and putting but there’s no stat for confidence, something that has given Poulter the edge in the past.  There’s plenty of good memories to look back on in Dubai with solo seconds here in 2010 and 2013 and coupled with the fact that he has no less than six career wins during the month of November, Poults gets on my shortlist.

Louis Oosthuizen  35/1

‘Cometh the hour cometh the man’ may well be apt when it comes to Louis Oosthuizen.  Unfortunately ‘cometh the man with the niggling injuries’ may well be more accurate.  There’s no arguing though, that Louis, on his day, can compete with the best in the world.   The South African is an ever present since 2009 in Dubai and has three top six finishes in his last four visits.  A win would cap off a fine year which included T2 fini
shes at both The Open and US Open. Big each way chances.

Lucas Bjerregaard 50/1

After his fine season I was considering Branden Grace (25/1) for my final pick this week, but see more value in debutant Lucas Bjerregaard at 50/1.  Lucas has been on a great run with a T9 in Portugal, solo 2nd in Hong Kong and a fine T3 at the BMW Masters last weekend.  Long off the tee and good greens in regulation stats make me believe Lucas will take well to the Earth Course.  He has also been under par cumulatively in his past four events, a stat I attach a lot of importance to.  Well worth an each way look.

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