2016 AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am Betting Preview And Tips

February 11th – 14th, 2016

Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill, Monterey
Purse: $7 million with $1,260,000 to the winner
Defending Champion:  Brandt Snedeker

The Pebble Beach Pro Am is one of the marquee events of the PGA Tour year but it’s a killer to back a winner.  Played over three different courses until a 54 hole cut, your guy could get the wind to contend with at Pebble, while the others play in the calm of Spyglass.  Or you could get caught up in a six hour round with a fruitcake of a Pro Am partner; trust me it happens!

Favourite Watch (Win Only Market)

Spieth is rested experienced and ready. But odds of 9/2 are ridiculous. 

Jordan Spieth at 9/2 is rested after some globe trotting  which yielded a T5 in Abu Dhabi and some fun in Singapore.  A 2016 winner already at the Tournament of Champions, Spieth has come close already in Pebble Beach with a T7 and T4 on his last two visits.  Traditionally experience is crucial to win this event; now that Spieth has some, he is unsurprising heavy favourite.

Speaking of experience, Dustin Johnson 11/1 bucked that trend in 2009 when he won on his second attempt and went on to defend in 2010.  Despite a cataclysmic disaster against GMac in the 2010 US Open at Pebble, DJ is still in love with the venue having scored a T5 in 2012, T2 in 2014 and T4 last season.  Lost interest in the farcical final round at Torrey Pines (80 for T18) but I think he’ll have the game face on this week.  In the favourites market Dustin at 11/1 would be my pick.

Doc’s Top Five Value Bets At the 2016 Pebble Beach Pro Am

Jimmy Walker 18/1

Tied fourth last time out in a hurricane at the extended Farmers Open and had last week off to get over it.  Started the season solidly with a T10 at the Tournament of Champions and T13 at Sony.  Comes to Carmel with four top-10’s in his five starts at the tournament including a win in 2014. T21 in 2015.  Solid each way chance.

Brandt Snedker 14/1

Didn’t putt so well in Phoenix but its understandable given the previous week at Torrey Pines.  That final round of 69 in a twister will go down next to the miracle of the loaves and fishes and Sneds was thoroughly deserving of that Farmers win. Especially so coming after a solo second at the Sony Open and T3 at the TOC.  Defending champion and winner also in 2013, one more week of popping those putts and Sneds can rest happy.

J.B. Holmes 30/1

J.B has been on my radar lately, I tipped him last week also where he finished T6 in Phoenix.  That came after a T6 at The Farmers in vastly different conditions.   Apart from his driving, what J.B. has done great at both venues was putt well; he ranked in the top 10 in both events.  Strong putting is key at Pebble Beach (and neighbours) on the Poa Annua grass which can get gnarly in the afternoons.  Holmes has a best of T2 in 2010 when Dustin Johnson pipped him (and David Duval) and was T10 here in 2015.

Shane Lowry 33/1

Shane was T21 on his first attempt at the Pebble Beach Pro Am and comes back this year a Tour winner, much stronger physically and with more experience of US golf.  The County Offaly man is also putting better than ever ranking in the top five on the greens at the Nedbank and Farmers and converting for a cumulative four under on the par-3’s last week in Phoenix.  Super each way bet.

Kevin Na 33/1

Kevin wont be bothered by the six hours rounds in this event and it’s his ability to persist and grind that will be key this week.  Arguably striking his irons better than anyone on the PGA Tour, I make it that Kevin has been under par on the par-4’s in every 2016 season start.  Four top-3 finishes in his last seven starts.

Long Odds Glory Shot

Bryce Molder 90/1

Bryce misses his fair share of cuts but on his day is a terrific putter and that’s going to be key this week.  T6 in Phoenix after a T3 performance on the greens and I think the bookies have him way overpriced at 90/1.  Three top-10’s at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am since 2010.  Keep an eye on his progress as the rounds go by.
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