2016 Waste Management Phoenix Open Betting Preview And Tips

February 4th – 7th, 2016
TPC of Scottsdale, Scottsdale, Ariz.
Par: 71 / Yardage:
Purse: $6.5 Million with $1,170,000 to the winner
Defending Champion: Brooks Koepka
Related: Also check out my 2016 Dubai Desert Classic Tips Post Here.

Doc’s Five Players To Watch At The 2016 Phoenix Open

My 2016 Waste Management Phoenix Open Betting Preview And Tips Video.
Posted by Donal Hughes on Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Bubba Watson 10/1

Call me unimaginative if you like but Bubba just cannot be ignored in Phoenix.  Long hitting, quality irons and Bubba’s scrambling prowess have yielded him three top fives in the last four stagings including T2’s in 2014 and 2015.  TPC Scottsdale is no pushover in the ‘proximity to hole’ stats so for Watson to be 55 under here for his last 16 rounds is super impressive.  All things being equal he should be in the mix.  A good each way bet at 10/1 and I’ve seen him quoted at 14/1 with some bookies.

Hideki Matsuyama 25/1

Form analysts might be put off by Hideki’s missed cut at Torrey Pines and WD before that at the WGC HSBC but go back a little further and there’s four top 20’s with plenty of good golf to recommend him.  Tied 4th on his debut at the Phoenix Open and tied second here last year.  That included a 63 on Saturday and stats clips of T3 in greens hit in regulation and T5 in putting.  Good each way chances.

J.B. Holmes 25/1

I was hugely impressed with how strongly J.B. finished the 2015 season at the BMW and Tour Championship and equally so with his T6 at The Farmers in awful conditions last week.  Although the course has undergone major renovations since, Holmes remains a two time winner here in 2006 and 2008.  Has a recent best of T5 in 2011 but dismal since.  I think this year will be different and am backing Holmes to be right up there again.

Brandt Snedeker 14/1

Ordinarily I’m wary about tipping players who have won the previous week, and moreso players who come from a windy event, but given that Brandt had Sunday more or less off, I’ll take a punt.  Sneds has now gone T3, 2, Win in his last three and seems to be loving that new Bridgestone JGR driver which replaced his trusty old Superfast.  Tied 10th in Phoenix last year but posted the best putting stats in the field and has a best solo second in 2013 when Phil Mickelson blitzed the field.

David Lingmerth 50/1

I’m choosing David Lingmerth over Kevin Kisner and Jason Dufner for my fifth pick.  Didn’t play here last year and T42 in 2014 but the Swede is a different proposition these days.  Coming off four consecutive top-20’s including a solo second last time out behind Jason Dufner at the Career Builders.  Skipping last week’s wind and another desert event might turn out to be crucial.

Long Odds Glory Shots

Everyone loves their long odds glory shots and I see a couple of guys down the betting who you might like a little flutter on.  Martin Laird battled gamely for his first top 10 in yonks last weeks in Torrey Pines and he led this event after 18 and 54 holes last year before finishing T5. He’s at 80/1.

Si Woo Kim continues to be ignored by the bookies at 100/1 even though I make it fives top 25’s in a row including a T6 at the Career Builders and T7 at The Sony.  This guy is good, very good.

To Win The Phoenix Open

There is more to winning in Phoenix than negotiating the cauldron of the 16th hole.   The scoring average at TPC Scottsdale in 2015 was 70.75, a quarter of a shot below par, so it lies somewhere in the middle on the Tour roster as regards difficulty.

Driving distance, accuracy and hitting greens are the keys to success here.  The course ranked T12th most difficult in Strokes Gained tee to green in 2015.

It also ranked 8th most difficult in the proximity to hole in 2015 with those hitting greens on average getting it 39 feet and 9 inches.  That’s why it’s not the birdie and eagle fest you might expect.

In 2015 one of three players who missed the greens failed to get up and down so scrambling cannot be underestimated either.

Expect the winning score to be in the range -14 to -18.

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