2016 Open Championship Betting Preview And Tips

July 13th – 16th, 2016
Royal Troon, Troon, Scotland
Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,190
Purse: $9.59 million with $1,734,030 to the winner
Defending Champion: Zach Johnson

2016 Open Championship Favourite Discussion

Rory McIlroy 10/1. If he putts he wins.
With Jason Day, Jordan Spieth and Dustin Johnson all occupying the bookies it looks like Rory McIlroy is going under the radar at 10/1.  Since winning in Ireland Rors has notched up a T4 at the Memorial and solo third in Paris, both of which involved a marked improvement in his putting stats.  McIlroy has been to Troon last week and my spies say he put in lots of work on the greens.  Didn’t play last year due to injury so effectively is defending his 2014 win this week.  If he gets that putter humming the widely held consensus is that he could win convincingly here.

Doc’s Five Best Bets At The 2016 Open Championship 

Sergio Garcia 25/1

Sergio 25/1. This Open wont beat him up mentally like the others.
Hard to believe but this will be Sergio’s 20th Open Championship and though never a winner I believe he still has a super chance.  In great form since a solo third at Valderrama going on to win the Byron Nelson and finish T5 at the US Open. Was T5 also last time out in Germany.  Sergio has made 15 cuts from 19 starts at The Open an though one of those missed cuts was here at Troon in 2004, he has a proven links game, experience and most importantly a new found confidence.  Deserves one.

Adam Scott 22/1

Adam Scott 22/1. Only cares about Majors now.
You have to just love the way Adam Scott goes about his business. Has played three times since The Players but is still a two time winner in 2016 (WGC Caddy, Honda).  The Aussie gears his season nowadays towards the Majors and this is one he desperately wants.  No doubt the scar tissue remains from his 2012 “meltdown” at Lytham but an Open formline starting there of T2, T3, T5, T10 is not to be ignored.  The Golfing Gods act in mysterious ways!

Lee Westwood 40/1

Lee Westwood 40/1. Better form than you think.
Something is telling me that experience will be important at Troon and Lee Westwood and Billy Foster have that in bundles.  And before you say the first three tips are all Open collapsers, here’s my logic.  Westwood is having a very solid 2016 and including his T2 at The Masters has five top-15 finishes in his last six starts.  He also has three top-3 finishes in his last seven Opens and crucially can draw on the experience of a solo fourth at Royal Troon in 2004 when he bettered his score every round.  Don’t write Lee off each way, especially if the weather gets gnarly.

Henrik Stenson 30/1

Henrik Stenson 30/1. Depends how he starts.
It’s always a case of wait and see how he starts in The Open with Henrik but I think there’s enough value in 30/1 to back each way pre tournament.  Recovered from an opening 76 in tough conditions at Castle Stuart to finish T13 (he led accuracy from the tee stats) and coming off a win in Germany Henrik’s game is in top form.  Solo second in 2013 when Phil won at Muirfield and tied third in 2010 and 2008.  Great caddie too in Gareth Lord, expect Stenson to have a solid game plan this week.

Zach Johnson 45/1

Zach Johnson 45/1. Putting king.
Big debate between Louis Oosthuuizen and Zach Johnson for this final tip but I’m going to have to plump for the defending champion based on form.  Zach has found his game again of late with a T10 at the WGC Bridgestone and T8 before that at the US Open.  He has also been in the top -4 in the putting stats in his last three starts; something that will be crucial in Troon. Aside from winning in Saint Andrews in 2015, Zach finished T6 in 2013 and T9 in 2012  and there’s lots to suggest he will be in the mix again this week.  Hasn’t every winner at Troon has been American!

Long Odds Glory Shots

Ernie Els 100/1

Ernie Els 100/1. Bookies don't like him.
Ridiculous odds on Ernie and a little disrespectful in my opnion.  Yes he has had his problems of late both in The Open and on the greens but I believe you’ll see a great showing from him this week.  Ernie arrested a run of four missed cuts with a solo fifth at the Quicken Loans where he topped the strokes gained putting stats and clearly turned a corner.  He also brings a wealth of Open Championship experience to the table, with 13 top 10’s and two wins, the last coming not so long ago in 2012.  Els was also second last time the event was held in Troon, losing out to Todd Hamilton by a shot after a four hole playoff.  Watch this space.

Marc Leishman 80/1

Marc Leishman 80/1. Great last two Opens.

Has made a habit out of contending at the Open!  Made that playoff in 2015 when Johnson won and finished T5 in 2014.  Form of late hasn’t been super (55th at WGC Bridgestone, T39 Quicken Loans) but The Open requires something different and Marc has it.

Didn’t Make The Top Five

Louis Oosthuizen 40/1 loves The Open and was T2 at Saint Andrews in 2015; also the sight of his win in 2010.  Just was not enough recent form to get him a pick, but certainly do not discount him.

Branden Grace 20/1 is another South African with plenty of links experience but has yet to really contend at The Open.  Having a great year with wins in Qatar and Harbour Town and a T5 at the US Open. T29 in Scotland last week.

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