I fancy a number of golfers at odds of 30/1 or better at Augusta this week but also fear the great unknown which is just how Tiger Woods wil...
I fancy a number of golfers at odds of 30/1 or better at Augusta this week but also fear the great unknown which is just how Tiger Woods will fare after 5 months off? My solution is simply to structure my bets so as to take Tiger out of the equation.
I touched on some of the many betting markets available to punters in my Masters Overview and now that it is time to put my money down I am looking to take advantage of that range by making use of the “Without Woods” market available at a number of bookmakers but in particular Betxchange who have the best prices about my particular fancies.
First up a case can be made for all of the men at the top of the betting boards but you can also argue against them all as well.
Woods 5/1 has just emerged from a personal scandal and has not competed for 5 months, Els 14/1 would probably have been better off not playing in Houston and no longer has Ricci Roberts on his bag, Mickelson 14/1 has had a poor start to 2010, Harrington 20/1 has also not been in the greatest of form.
I would not try and put you off either of them but I am looking further down the list for betting value.
ONE WEEK TOO EARLY ON CASEY?
It has become a bit of a standing joke in our Forum that quite often a punter is a week to early with one of his selections. Els and Furyk were tipped the week before they won and with this in mind I am going for Paul Casey as my headline selection this week. I was actually on him at the Shell Houston Open where I fancied him to defend his title but he pulled out with back and shoulder problems before the tournament could begin.
That is obviously a worry but in an interview with the BBC he indicates all is well and I am actually happier that he comes into this event well rested.
As much as I thought he was course suited last week so his record at Augusta impresses me and he recovered from a slow start for 20th place last year with an 11th and 10th preceding that showing and a 6th on debut.
He has been very consistent this year as well and is generally thereabouts and while his recent injuries are a concern the odds of 30/1 look fair value on a course that suits his game perfectly.
CHARGE OF THE YOUNG AMERICANS
There is nothing very original about my remaining selections and they have a few things in common in that they are American, young, long hitters, great ball strikers and have all won on Tour in the not so distant past. The other similarity is that they are regulars in my staking plans mainly due to the fact that I have at some point identified them as potential major championship winners.
First up is Dustin Johnson who delivered at 22/1 at Pebble Beach earlier this season. His game has gone off slightly but he is scary long off the tee and showed with his debut finish of 30th last year that he could find this course to his liking going forward. His short game may not quite be at the level required to win and of all of my picks I think his price relatively speaking offers the least value but I have seen enough to include him this week.
There is 60/1 on offer with Betxchange but as you will see in my staking plan I am approaching things from a different angle this week.
Next comes my biggest success of 2010 Hunter Mahan who won at Phoenix when quoted at 75/1. I liked what I saw down the stretch that day and while his form since has not been as good he showed up nicely here in 2009 with a T10 finish having missed the cut in 2008. He has been around for a while now and looks ready to take the step up from promising young gun to major contender and in my opinion he is well priced at 60/1 as well.
Sean O’Hair finished alongside Mahan last year but unlike Hunter he has not won in 2010 and for that matter he has been disappointing. There have been some signs that he is coming to hand though and he has shown he can win and compete on tough golf courses and was also 14th here in 2008. A great ball striker he has been working hard on his short game and the 66/1 this week is big enough to get him into my staking plan.
Finally I have found place for Nick Watney who was T11 in 2008 and 19th in 2009. A great ball striker Watney has drifted somewhat this season with 3 top 10’s in 9 starts and only a single missed cut. He was 4th at the Transitions Championship and seems to be heading in the right direction and his stats while not brilliant are solid and he sits top 40 in Total Driving and Greens in Regulation. Watney is a 60/1 shot at Betxchange.
STAKING PLAN
I actually have a bet on Tiger winning at least 1 major this year and I am unsure what to make of him this week. With this in mind I am going to back my fancies in the “Without Woods” market but take places (Top 5) in the “With Woods” market so as to benefit from the inflated place prices.
Market: Winner without Tiger Woods
2 units win Casey at 25/1 with Betxchange
1 unit win D Johnson at 40/1 with Betxchange
1 unit win Mahan at 50/1 with Betxchange
1 unit win Watney at 50/1 with Betxchange
1 unit win O’Hair at 50/1 with Betxchange
Market: Winner including Woods
3 units Top 5 Casey at 15/2 with Betxchange
1.5 units Top 5 D Johnson at 15/1 with Betxchange
1.5 units Top 5 Mahan at 15/1 with Betxchange
1.5 units Top 5 Watney at 15/1 with Betxchange
1.5 units Top 5 O’Hair at 16.5/1 with Betxchange
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