I asked some of my most learned facebook friends for their top 3 US Masters picks. Here’s what they said: also see my US Masters Betting S...
I asked some of my most learned facebook friends for their top 3 US Masters picks. Here’s what they said:
also see my US Masters Betting Shortlist and 5 Outsiders To Watch
Mark Sweeney of Aimpoint is an expert on Augusta's greens. Here are Mark’s thoughts
I have run tournament predictions for several years and now just focus on majors due to the amount of effort it takes to do a good job. In 2009 my stats loved Lucas Glover even though he had never performed well in a US Open, so I picked him as a sleeper against all conventional wisdom and he won (article). What I have found is that picking a top 10 is pretty easy, but picking the winner is extraordinarily difficult. The best predictive models work on momentum and consistency, so that is what I’m going to use for this year’s Masters.
To make life easier, I first eliminate all the players that I don’t think have a realistic chance of winning. This includes first-timers, past champions who are past their prime, amateurs, and players who qualified from wins prior to 2012. This filter cut 35 players out of contention, about a third of the field.
The next filter I use is I eliminate anyone without a strong short game and a high GIR rating combined. All my studies show that the winners best differentiate themselves in GIR, Putting, and Scrambling above all else. If you can’t hit greens, chip and putt, especially on super fast greens, then you don’t have a good chance of winning the Masters. This qualification eliminates everyone but the top 30 players in this ranking.
At this point I start looking at scoring average. If we adjust for lowest scoring averages in 2013 we get the following players making the Top 15 list:
Just barely missing the cut are Fowler, McIroy, Oosthuizen, Day, Dufner, Donald, Watney, and Poulter. This is not to say they are not still dangerous, it just says some of their performance stats are not quite as high cumulatively as the Top 15.
The final picks are part science and part art, looking at trends and trying to predict if a player is trending up or down just prior to the Masters . Positive trending players are Woods, Rose, and Stenson. Woods is playing the best of everyone right now so he makes Top 3, and Rose has been consistently rising all year, so he does too. Stenson has been hot but I’m afraid he’s may have maxed out over the last few weeks with three top 10 finishes. The other players are all trending down, which is not necessarily a bad thing. The fact is that no player can sustain a hot streak for more than 3 tournaments, except Woods during his strongest years. So often a player trending down will turn it his around right on cue. Mickelson is a perfect example. He tends to play great for a couple tournaments, then average for a couple tournaments before reversing the trend again. And guess what, his last two events where average at best which makes him another Top 3 contender in my view. So my Top 3 are Woods, Rose, and Mickelson, followed by Haas, Bradley, Snedeker, Stricker, and Stenson. But based on pure gut feel, I like Rose to win.
also see my US Masters Betting Shortlist and 5 Outsiders To Watch
Gary Murphy: Former European Tour Player, TV Analyst  | Tiger Woods: Because he is tiger. Rory Mclroy: I think there is some magic waiting to show that the Masters will ignite Henrik Stenson: Stats wise he is best player on PGA tour at the moment. Only slight is his record at Augusta which is like mayo at Croke park in September. |
Mark Foster, European Tour Pro  | My 3 tips are Charl Schwartzel because his form is amazing, Louis Oosthuizen because I feel he will be extra determined after last year and my outside bet is Angel Cabrera. He is a course and distance specialist |
Brian Keogh, Golf Writer  | Tiger, Phil, Bubba. Tiger for obvious reasons and the lefties because, well, they're lefties and former champions. Perfect for Augusta! |
Nathan Murphy, Today FM Sportscaster  | Phil Mickelson - For me everything points to Phil winning a 4th Green Jacket. He's already won this year, he only finished 2 back last year despite 2 triple bogies and look at his record at Augusta - 3 wins, 12 top 10's in last 14 years, 5 top 5's in the last 7 years. Tiger Woods - The way he is playing it's impossible to leave Tiger off the list. I'd love to see him win it but I can see his driving letting him down on Sunday. Nick Watney - Showed signs of a return to form in Houston and has played well at Augusta before. |
Derek Murray, Award winning clubmaker  | Rory McIlroy. Certainly has the game for it and as long as his putter warms up he should feature well. Angel Cabrera. Past winner. Likes the track and suits his long drives and accurate aggressive style. Padraig Harrington. Clinical approach shots. Calculated putting style suits the greens and I'm likely to be having dinner with him so better put him in in case he reads this!! |
Ivan Morris, Golf Writer  | On form, it's impossible to go against Tiger but golf is a funny game. Many a major winner has come out of nowhere. If I was betting against Tiger, I'd go for a South African like Schwartzel who won it before and Oosthuizen who was 'robbed' last year. |
Tadhg Harrington, Former bookie and Padraig’s Brother  | Padraig Harrington: Backed him at 110/1! He would have been right there last year if he didn't decide to putt like the SpinDoctor in the final round. Steve Stricker and Matt Kuchar also make my shortlist. |
John Kelly, PGA Pro St. Margaret’s  | Matt Kuchar loves Augusta ever since his amateur days a very steady player maybe lacks a bit of the tee but if the putter works will be very close. Steve Stricker a great putter will win in Augusta and they don't come any better than Stricker. I just hope he hasn't told Tiger everything he knows. Nicolas Colsaerts an outsider with all the power to take on Augusta will be good watch him on his first visit to Augusta. |
Darren Frehill, RTE Sport  | Tiger Woods - It's pretty hard to bet against him from what I've seen this season. I know it's 5 years since he won his last major but he's had ten top five finishes at Augusta since 1997. He will be contention but does he still have that killer instinct on that back 9 come Sunday? Phil Mickelson - I was lucky enough to see Phil win at Augusta in 2006. The guy knows this place like the back of his hand and his 3 wins here tells you all you need to know. Looked good in Phoenix and the Cadillac Championship in last couple of weeks. When it comes to winning green jackets, never write him off. Justin Rose - Lots of people are talking about Lee Westwood but I don't think he has the putting game for Augusta. Justin Rose is sometimes the forgotten man but he had a great year so far. His recent record in Georgia suggests he will be there or thereabouts come Sunday. |
Dennis Allen, Back9Network USA  | Tiger Woods - because he once again believes he should be winning majors. Sergio Garcia - because he's the best player yet to win a major and there is no pressure on him to win. Everyone expects him to come unglued in the big events. Adam Scott - because he seems very comfortable with who is is right now. That allows him to stay in the zone necessary to compete in Augusta. |
Lynn McCool, Head Pro Lough Erne Golf Resort  | Rory if he goes back to wearing traditional golf shoes! He's back on his heels. Charles Howell is starting to show form. Ian Poulter if he imagines Augusta as a real opponent and gets that extra inch to his step |
Bill Hughes, Manager TPC Sawgrass  | Tiger Woods: He's Back! Matt Kuchar: Off to a great year, 3rd in FedEx Cup Points, Won THE PLAYERS last year, all around great player in every statistical category, and time to break through and win a major. Brian Gay, Reason: Winner this year, and by FAR, the best putter on the PGA TOUR year in and year out. |
Rory McNamara, 2013 West Of Ireland Champion  | Tiger Woods: Great record, his putting boots are back and he’s the man!! I think Rors will surprise a lot of people and put in a good performance. He has the perfect ball flight for that place! And Alan Dunbar!! If he gets the flat stick going he’s awesome, no fear!! |
David Lynn, PGA Tour Player  | My first pick is Tiger, just because he's TW. Then Phil. He loves the place and is showing a bit of form. Finally Rosey.(Justin Rose), he has played good there before and is showing form. |
Andrew Lynch, Thorbjorn Olesen’s Manager  | Keegan Bradley: A proven major winner who oozes confidence. His high ball flight will suit the firm greens at Augusta. Dustin Johnson: A huge hitter with a great short game and the super calm temperament conducive to winning. Tiger: Who'd bet against him! He's back, isn't he?! |
Harry Diamond, Irish International  | Rory Mcilroy: If ever a course was made for Rory's game it's Augusta. He hits high draws in his sleep and is the most underrated player in the world with a 60 degree wedge! Rory also putts his best on really fast true greens! I honestly think this is the last time for a decade you are going to get double figure odds on Rory to win the Masters (so load up). Phil Mickelson: Mickelson has a great record at Augusta. I think he is a sure bet for a top 5 finish. Nobody knows the course better and his magical short game allows him to be more aggressive than others knowing he can get the ball up and down from almost anywhere. Adam Scott: Scott has played well here the last couple of years, going very close in 2011 and I expect him to be right up there again! He is one of the best ball strikers in the game and seems to putt well with the broom handle on these fast greens. Can see him having another good week this year but not strong enough to trouble Rory! |
Andy Sullivan, European Tour Player  | Tiger, Charl and Rose for me. I think all these players have shown good form early season and all good around Augusta. |
David Keating, Head Pro, Killarney Golf Club  | Tiger Woods, Keegan Bradley, Phil Mickelson. Woods is without doubt the best player of all time. He is coming into this year’s tournament in great form and if that form continues he won't be beaten. Bradley has great passion for the game and his high draw is made for the course. If he putts well he will be right there. Phil knows how to win at Augusta and he should have won again last year. I expect a strong challenge again from Mickelson who should be Tigers biggest challenger.. |
Mark Murphy, Big Break Ireland Winner  | The nicest guy on tour by a long shot Justin Rose is showing some form at late. Tiger because he is The Man and a legend. And the ATM that is Matt Kuchar! |
Richard Bland, European Tour Player  | Tiger Woods: He’s playing better than anyone & think he's really up for it!! Charl Schwartzel.. Playing great and the place suits his game perfectly!! My outside pick is LeeWestwood: Tee to green he is flawless and if he can get the putter working he'll be right there Sunday!! |
I have run tournament predictions for several years and now just focus on majors due to the amount of effort it takes to do a good job. In 2009 my stats loved Lucas Glover even though he had never performed well in a US Open, so I picked him as a sleeper against all conventional wisdom and he won (article). What I have found is that picking a top 10 is pretty easy, but picking the winner is extraordinarily difficult. The best predictive models work on momentum and consistency, so that is what I’m going to use for this year’s Masters.
To make life easier, I first eliminate all the players that I don’t think have a realistic chance of winning. This includes first-timers, past champions who are past their prime, amateurs, and players who qualified from wins prior to 2012. This filter cut 35 players out of contention, about a third of the field.
The next filter I use is I eliminate anyone without a strong short game and a high GIR rating combined. All my studies show that the winners best differentiate themselves in GIR, Putting, and Scrambling above all else. If you can’t hit greens, chip and putt, especially on super fast greens, then you don’t have a good chance of winning the Masters. This qualification eliminates everyone but the top 30 players in this ranking.
At this point I start looking at scoring average. If we adjust for lowest scoring averages in 2013 we get the following players making the Top 15 list: | Bradley |
| Garcia |
| Haas |
| Kuchar |
| Mahan |
| McDowell |
| Mickelson |
| Rose |
| Simpson |
| Snedeker |
| Stenson |
| Streelman |
| Stricker |
| Watson |
| Woods |
Just barely missing the cut are Fowler, McIroy, Oosthuizen, Day, Dufner, Donald, Watney, and Poulter. This is not to say they are not still dangerous, it just says some of their performance stats are not quite as high cumulatively as the Top 15.
The final picks are part science and part art, looking at trends and trying to predict if a player is trending up or down just prior to the Masters . Positive trending players are Woods, Rose, and Stenson. Woods is playing the best of everyone right now so he makes Top 3, and Rose has been consistently rising all year, so he does too. Stenson has been hot but I’m afraid he’s may have maxed out over the last few weeks with three top 10 finishes. The other players are all trending down, which is not necessarily a bad thing. The fact is that no player can sustain a hot streak for more than 3 tournaments, except Woods during his strongest years. So often a player trending down will turn it his around right on cue. Mickelson is a perfect example. He tends to play great for a couple tournaments, then average for a couple tournaments before reversing the trend again. And guess what, his last two events where average at best which makes him another Top 3 contender in my view. So my Top 3 are Woods, Rose, and Mickelson, followed by Haas, Bradley, Snedeker, Stricker, and Stenson. But based on pure gut feel, I like Rose to win.
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