2013 US Open Betting Tips: Stats Analysis

Sunda y Update: 2013 US Open Final Round Betting Preview and Tips Final Round Betting Preview Favourite: Phil Mickelson 9/4 Undou...

Sundaboo poligripy Update:

2013 US Open Final Round Betting Preview and Tips

Final Round Betting Preview

Favourite: Phil Mickelson 9/4
philmickelson_headUndoubtedly the favourite heading into the final round, Phil is swinging and putting beautifully and has the advantage of being in the final group today where he and Bones will forensically dissect every shot.  One caveat is Phil is not carrying a driver and it has taken him everything in his power to negotiate the closing holes especially 18 without it.  So long the bridesmaid in his national championship, will this be the one? It looks likely.
Short Odds: Schwartzel 5/1, Stricker 7/1, Mahan 7/1, Rose 8/1, Donald 10/1
donaldAll these players are within two shots of the lead.  Luke Donald at 10/1 seems unreasonably long odds but the bookies will have picked up on the fact that he did drop his shoulders yesterday on the 18th taking double bogey.  Donald is not out of this by any means however, his tempo for all but his second shot to 18 yesterday was the best in the field and his magical short game and putter has saved him time and again.  Of the leaders Luke has the worst GIR stats hitting only 35 of 54 greens; if he can hit a few more greens in his final round, he could just bag his first major.  Playing with Justin Rose in third last group will help.
Steve Stricker is 46, but has the best course management stats of the field. Interestingly Stricks was one of the few players to bounce back immediately from adversity on Saturday, following a double bogey  on the ninth with birdies on the 10th and 12th.  That proves he can press when needs really must. He’s been in only one bunker all week and looks to have the game to card another even par round today.  This US Open wont be won, it will be survived, and Stricker is nothing if not a survivor.
final round bettingFor Mahan: Hunter Mahan is loving this US Open. If you want stats, try this one on for size, Hunter has only missed six fairways all week.  He’s not the best iron player hitting only 33 of 54 greens but with total putts numbering 85 he has stuck right in there.
For Schwartzel: 28 of 42 fairways, 36 of 54 greens hit, 1 of 4 sand saves yet right in there.  A former Major Champion.
For Rose: Like Stricker, amazing course management job so far, the first time he’s really adopted this careful strategy.  Held the big putts in the Ryder Cup when it counted. Brilliant pairing with Donald today, ahead of all the commotion.

Doc’s Value Bets: Jason Day 16/1, Rickie Fowler 33/1

dayOne of the few players to go under par on Saturday, Jason Day will go all guns blazing at this final round.  Day may not be straightest off the tee, but he has still managed to hit 38 of 54 greens because of his irons.  With final round pins set to ultra tough, this will suit the Aussie.  When you get a guy who can birdie a 98 yard par three, then birdie a 246 yard par three an hour later, you have to fancy he can press today.  Came close at the Masters twice now and has a solo US Open second in 2011, I’m going each way on Day who is paired with Billy Horschel today.
rickieOf all the field Rickie Fowler has made the most improvement so far.  His third round was, quite simply, incredible with one solitary bogey (on the tough 5th) along with four birdies.  With a GIR clip to date of 74%, Fowler at 33/1 looks to be the value bet in the field.



3rd round leaderboard


Before you read this, make sure you have a look at 2013 US Open betting preview and tips post.
I’ve been having a quick look at the PGA Tour stats today to determine who jumps out at me from four categories I think might be important at Merion.

Driving Accuracy

driving accuracyWe all know that straight driving is a must for the US Open.  It may be a little skewed this year with the fact that the course is playing short.  Luke Donald for instance, who’s not the longest batter, says he might use driver five times in his round.  Whatever they say, it seems clear that to play the final five holes well, you must be committed off the tee.  Henrik Stenson 70/1 just pips Tim Clark 90/1 in straight driving with perennial US Open contender Jim Furyk 40/1 right up there in fourth.

Greens In Regulation

greens in regStenson is right here again when it comes to hitting greens in regulation, making the most of his accuracy off the tee. Interestingly Rory McIlroy 22/1 ranks fourth in GIR and given his problems with the driver this year, the fact that he wont be AS reliant on it at Merion, coupled with the fact that the course is as wet as at Congressional in 2011, makes him very dangerous at great odds.

Approaches From 175-200 Yards

approach from 175-200 yardsShhh, dont tell anyone but this is one of the key stats to add in when it comes to US Open.  If a player shows up in here and you can match them to one of the driving or GIR stats, then he’s a ringer. You will see Rory McIlroy pops up here again and Tiger makes an appearance. You might be surprised to see Bubba Watson 90/1  there but that’s why he like the others is also a Major Champion.  The key here man here however is Boo Weekley 90/1, a recent Tour winner, and highly regarded on Tour for his ball striking.  Married to his driving accuracy rank of 20th, Boo will be looking forward to this week.

Scrambling

scrambling
Justin Rose 28/1 may have less rounds in the bank than many of the others in the scrambling stats but coupled with his accuracy stats will mean the Englishman has low odds this week.
The odds setters will see  Matt Kuchar’s recent form of a win and second, including topping the shotlink combined stats at the Memorial coupled with his season long scrambling and putting stats and thus he’s among the favourites at 22/1

In Summary

In summary, the stats back up the credentials of Major winners Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy. Jim Furyk is the safe each way bet. Bubba Watson and Boo Weekley are the surprises in the numbers, while Justin Rose justifies his odds.  Matt Kuchar may not be the most accurate off the tee with the driver, but he may not have to use it much at Merion.
But dont forget, stats are just one factor in a much bigger equation. Good luck with your bets!

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