2015 Turkish Airlines Open Betting Preview And Tips The Montgomerie Maxx Royal Antalya, Turkey 29 Oct 2015 - 01 Nov 2015 Last week: T2 L...
2015 Turkish Airlines Open Betting Preview And Tips
The Montgomerie Maxx Royal
Antalya, Turkey 29 Oct 2015 - 01 Nov 2015
Last week: T2 Lucas Bjerregaard 50/1, T2 Jason Bohn 28/1, T2 Kevin Na 22/1
Rory McIlroy tops the betting at 9/2 this week and even without showing his best stuff of late, he’ll take plenty of punters money. Personally I see value in Shane Lowry at 16/1 in the win-only market. Both his recent T2 at Woburn and win at Firestone were underpinned by top-5 Greens In Regulation (GIR) performances; something that will be key in Turkey this week. His third appearance on this track (2013: T44, 2014: T25) but rested, physically much stronger, and more confident, Shane is bringing a whole lot more to the party this time around.
I was waiting to see if Matt would suffer the winner’s hangover in Hong Kong; i.e. win one week then come nowhere the next, but another T3 at the weekend just underlined how grounded and focused he is. Even though he is a debutant, this Monty course couldn’t be more suited to Fitz, with the same GIR rewards as in the Czech Republic, Italy, England and Hong Kong where he has thrived. If Poults could amass a two round lead of six shots around here, Matt Fitzpatrick in his current form can win this pulling away.
Our tipping success this year can be attributed in fair part to looking towards players showing par-4 scoring form and it worked a treat last week again with Lucas Bjerregaard and Jason Bohn. This week I’m drawn back to Andy Sullivan who along with being in the top-10 in EVERY major stat in Portugal, went -13 on the par-4’s. He has to be on your shortlist for season win number four after a T4 on his debut last year. Given the chance, form man Sully will grab it.
You know I really thought I could get Danny at better value than 22/1 this week after a T46 at Woburn and T52 at the Alfred Dunhill but its hard to get ahead of the bookies. While his missus Nicole relaxed by the pool at the MAXX hotel, the European Masters champ was working hard on his game Monday morning and all looked well with the world. Nobody hit more greens than Danny here last year and he’ll be looking to better his T4 finish then. Rory’s nearest rival in the Race To Dubai.
It’s hard to find real each way value this week but Soren Kjeldsen at 40/1 fits the bill. His one previous appearance here was in 2013 but he wasn’t in anything like the form he has found this season so I’m discounting it as irrelevant. Winner in Ireland, T2 at home in Denmark and again at the British Masters with a whole load more solid finishes in between, the cream always has a way of rising in the finals and if the Dane is to strike he wont get a course more suited than this.
Oh ye of little faith! Lucas gave Justin Rose a right old battle and made us all money last week with his solo second in Hong Kong, yet is 50/1 again this week? Yes it is his debut in Turkey but if Brooks Koepka can win here, then Lucas can do well too with his 310 yard average from the tee. There’s more than length to the Dane’s game too; he was T2 in GIR last week and T7 in greens hit in Portugal before that. Full of confidence, I have no problem in reinvesting some of the winnings at these odds.
Tyrrell Hatton at 75/1 has had a fine season and I was really impressed with him at Royal County Down where he finished T4. He’s since been solo 3rd at the European Masters and showed solid form with a T13 in Woburn recently. T19 on his debut here last year and looked to be enjoying this course. Good odds.
Alex Levy 80/1 may be daft as a brush but there’s something greatness in there too! Showing glimpses of form in between some pure muck but worth watching his progress this week from 80/1. I don’t know why he split from Bo on the bag (the French language barrier maybe) but those two were a great pair and Alex hasn’t been near as good since. T11 in 2014.
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The Montgomerie Maxx Royal
Antalya, Turkey 29 Oct 2015 - 01 Nov 2015
Last week: T2 Lucas Bjerregaard 50/1, T2 Jason Bohn 28/1, T2 Kevin Na 22/1
Favourite’s Discussion (Win Only)
Rory McIlroy tops the betting at 9/2 this week and even without showing his best stuff of late, he’ll take plenty of punters money. Personally I see value in Shane Lowry at 16/1 in the win-only market. Both his recent T2 at Woburn and win at Firestone were underpinned by top-5 Greens In Regulation (GIR) performances; something that will be key in Turkey this week. His third appearance on this track (2013: T44, 2014: T25) but rested, physically much stronger, and more confident, Shane is bringing a whole lot more to the party this time around.
Doc’s Top-5 To Watch In Turkey (Each Way)
Matt Fitzpatrick 22/1
I was waiting to see if Matt would suffer the winner’s hangover in Hong Kong; i.e. win one week then come nowhere the next, but another T3 at the weekend just underlined how grounded and focused he is. Even though he is a debutant, this Monty course couldn’t be more suited to Fitz, with the same GIR rewards as in the Czech Republic, Italy, England and Hong Kong where he has thrived. If Poults could amass a two round lead of six shots around here, Matt Fitzpatrick in his current form can win this pulling away.
Andy Sullivan 25/1
Our tipping success this year can be attributed in fair part to looking towards players showing par-4 scoring form and it worked a treat last week again with Lucas Bjerregaard and Jason Bohn. This week I’m drawn back to Andy Sullivan who along with being in the top-10 in EVERY major stat in Portugal, went -13 on the par-4’s. He has to be on your shortlist for season win number four after a T4 on his debut last year. Given the chance, form man Sully will grab it.
Danny Willett 22/1
You know I really thought I could get Danny at better value than 22/1 this week after a T46 at Woburn and T52 at the Alfred Dunhill but its hard to get ahead of the bookies. While his missus Nicole relaxed by the pool at the MAXX hotel, the European Masters champ was working hard on his game Monday morning and all looked well with the world. Nobody hit more greens than Danny here last year and he’ll be looking to better his T4 finish then. Rory’s nearest rival in the Race To Dubai.
Soren Kjeldsen 40/1
Lucas Bjerregaard 50/1
Oh ye of little faith! Lucas gave Justin Rose a right old battle and made us all money last week with his solo second in Hong Kong, yet is 50/1 again this week? Yes it is his debut in Turkey but if Brooks Koepka can win here, then Lucas can do well too with his 310 yard average from the tee. There’s more than length to the Dane’s game too; he was T2 in GIR last week and T7 in greens hit in Portugal before that. Full of confidence, I have no problem in reinvesting some of the winnings at these odds.
Long Odds Glory Shots (Odds Over 70/1)
Alex Levy 80/1 may be daft as a brush but there’s something greatness in there too! Showing glimpses of form in between some pure muck but worth watching his progress this week from 80/1. I don’t know why he split from Bo on the bag (the French language barrier maybe) but those two were a great pair and Alex hasn’t been near as good since. T11 in 2014.
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