So you think you know who is going to win the PGA Championship eh?

Not so fast.

Here's some stuff you should you about Baltusrol to really clue you in.

Related: Check out my full 2016 PGA Championship Betting Preview and Tips post here.

Firstly the fun stuff.  Bad shit happens at Baltusrol. Remember that.  In 1831 a farmer by name of Baltus Roll who owned the land was bludgeoned to death in front of his wife by thieves looking for cash. So it's cursed.  Oh yeah and the clubhouse was destroyed by a fire in 1909.

For the 2005 PGA Championship 240 yards was added to the course leaving five of the par 4's over 450 yards with the 3rd and 8th holes over 500 yards.  The 17th is the first par 5 on the course was stretched to 650 yards, so the big blasters who can knock it straight have claims here.

Very ironically the USGA stopped using the lower course in Baltusrol to host US Opens in 1993 because they considered it too easy. Nicklaus ripped it asunder in 1967 and in 1980 shot a 72 hole scoring record 272. In 1993 when Lee Janzen tied that record the USGA said enough is enough.  So ever since then Baltusrol has been trying to shed the "easy" tag.

Baltusrol only got the 2005 PGA Championship by accident after Brookline turned it down.  The winning score from Phil Mickelson of 4 under par 276 did help redeem itself in terms of difficulty even if Tommy Bjorn did shoot a 63 in that event.

The rough this week is patchy. Impossible to hit from in spots and then too easy to hit from in others. That's how the PGA of America roll.

It's easy to say its a big hitters track then Jim Furyk or Zach Jesus pop up on the leaderboard but have a look at the yardages anyway.
Only two par 4's are under 425 yards
Three of the four par 3's are over 209 yards
The 17th and 18th holes are the first and only par fives. The 17th is 650 yards.
Even with all the scary yardages the second hole is still only 377 yards and the 8th hole is 380 yards.

Punter note: You need to be looking at players who lead Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green in the stats.

The 2005 stats showed the field making only 2.48 birdies per round, only the US Open at Pinehurst ranked tougher that year. Bogey avoidance is another stat to watch but scoring this week is expected to be better. Equipment and distances have changed a lot since 2005.

Some players just cannot perform in heat and humidity.  The forecast is weather in the high 80s/low 90s with high humidity so bear that in mind.

Putting will be the key this week.  The winner cannot miss anything inside 10 feet. In 2005 Baltusrol ranked 7th toughest in putting average, 3rd in one-putt average and 12th in 3-putt avoidance. Phil Mickelson was T3 in putting average, so the winner this week will be banging everything within a 10 foot circle into the hole.

Your job now is to whittle the field down and make your selections.  Here are mine.  Best of luck.

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