Sunday Update: 2013 US Open Final Round Betting Preview and Tips Final Round Betting Preview Favourite: Phil Mickelson 9/4 Undou...
Sunday Update:
Undoubtedly
the favourite heading into the final round, Phil is swinging and
putting beautifully and has the advantage of being in the final group
today where he and Bones will forensically dissect every shot. One
caveat is Phil is not carrying a driver and it has taken him everything
in his power to negotiate the closing holes especially 18 without it.
So long the bridesmaid in his national championship, will this be the
one? It looks likely.
Short Odds: Schwartzel 5/1, Stricker 7/1, Mahan 7/1, Rose 8/1, Donald 10/1
All
these players are within two shots of the lead. Luke Donald at 10/1
seems unreasonably long odds but the bookies will have picked up on the
fact that he did drop his shoulders yesterday on the 18th taking double
bogey. Donald is not out of this by any means however, his tempo for
all but his second shot to 18 yesterday was the best in the field and
his magical short game and putter has saved him time and again. Of the
leaders Luke has the worst GIR stats hitting only 35 of 54 greens; if he
can hit a few more greens in his final round, he could just bag his
first major. Playing with Justin Rose in third last group will help.
Steve Stricker is 46, but has the best course management stats of the field. Interestingly Stricks was one of the few players to bounce back immediately from adversity on Saturday, following a double bogey on the ninth with birdies on the 10th and 12th. That proves he can press when needs really must. He’s been in only one bunker all week and looks to have the game to card another even par round today. This US Open wont be won, it will be survived, and Stricker is nothing if not a survivor.
For
Mahan: Hunter Mahan is loving this US Open. If you want stats, try this
one on for size, Hunter has only missed six fairways all week. He’s
not the best iron player hitting only 33 of 54 greens but with total
putts numbering 85 he has stuck right in there.
For Schwartzel: 28 of 42 fairways, 36 of 54 greens hit, 1 of 4 sand saves yet right in there. A former Major Champion.
For Rose: Like Stricker, amazing course management job so far, the first time he’s really adopted this careful strategy. Held the big putts in the Ryder Cup when it counted. Brilliant pairing with Donald today, ahead of all the commotion.
One
of the few players to go under par on Saturday, Jason Day will go all
guns blazing at this final round. Day may not be straightest off the
tee, but he has still managed to hit 38 of 54 greens because of his
irons. With final round pins set to ultra tough, this will suit the
Aussie. When you get a guy who can birdie a 98 yard par three, then
birdie a 246 yard par three an hour later, you have to fancy he can
press today. Came close at the Masters twice now and has a solo US Open
second in 2011, I’m going each way on Day who is paired with Billy
Horschel today.
Of
all the field Rickie Fowler has made the most improvement so far. His
third round was, quite simply, incredible with one solitary bogey (on
the tough 5th) along with four birdies. With a GIR clip to date of 74%,
Fowler at 33/1 looks to be the value bet in the field.
Here are my tips for the 2013 US Open at Merion Golf Club. We’ve had an excellent season so far, culminating in a big Kuchar, Ilonen double on both sides of the Atlantic and seconds for Scott Stallings and Tommy Bjorn last week. Let’s hope these 5 can do us proud this week.
I’m a big GMac fan but its stone cold stats that are directing me towards him for the US Open. Since winning in Pebble in 2010, Graeme tied 14th at Congressional in 2011 and tied second at Olympic Club last season. The shorter Merion layout should be right up GMac’s alley off the tee and with wins at the RBC Heritage and at the Matchplay on the tricky Thracian Cliffs, I’m getting it hard to find any negatives. The wet weather and soft course will bring a whole section of players into the mix, but nobody's put in more work in reconnaissance and on the Merion range than GMac.
Another University of Alabama man, Michael Thompson seems another good fit for Merion. Thompson is a very good mid distance putter, something essential for this test, ranking in the top 10 all around from 10 to 25 feet from the hole. Since tying second last year, Thompson has won on Tour at the Honda Classic in early March, top 10’d at the WGC Cadillac and scored a very impressive tied eighth on the ultra-tough Muirfield Village layout last time out. My tip of the week and I’ve no doubt the bookies will trim the odds after this, so get to it before them!
Is this Glory’s Last Shot for 2007 Oakmont Champion Angel Cabrera? Since his playoff loss to Adam Scott at The Masters, Cabrera has played four PGA Tour events, making the cut in all and won on the PGA Latino America Tour at home in Argentina. It’s Pato’s 14 US Open and he’s only missed two cuts. We’ll know after five minutes if he fancies it! My thoughts are the softer greens will be in his favour and he has the power to tame those lengthy closing holes.
I’m delighted Kevin Chappell finished second behind Kuch at The Memorial because now people won’t think I’m a nutter for tipping him! It’s hard to see a player without a Tour victory winning a Major but Chappell has the perfect game for the biggest stage. The California man has played in two US Opens, he scored a solo third at Congressional in 2011 and tied 10th at Olympic Club in 2012. From 50 to 125 yards out, nobody on Tour hits it closer. Add being a great scrambler and even better bunker player into the mix and you have yourself a live contender from Fresno.With conditions set to be similar to those at Congressional, Chappell is worth a look.
Of the favourites, of course the hardened punters are going to take Tiger Woods at lengthening odds of 9/2, but at odds of 22/1 with bookies paying out top 5 and ties, Matt Kuchar looks a prudent bet. Won at the Memorial in fine style, never troubled, always in control of his game and his head. Four other top 10’s, a win in the desert matchplay, no missed cuts and a swing that’s in the slot make Kuch certainly deserving of your fiver each way.
Here’s the top 15 from 2012 at The Olympic Club
1 Webb Simpson 72 73 68 68 -2 +1 281 $1,440,000
T2 Michael Thompson 66 75 74 67 -3 +2 282 $695,916
T2 Graeme McDowell 69 72 68 73 +3 +2 282 $695,916
T4 David Toms 69 70 76 68 -2 +3 283 $276,841
T4 Padraig Harrington 74 70 71 68 -2 +3 283 $276,841
T4 John Peterson 71 70 72 70 E +3 283 $276,841
T4 Jason Dufner 72 71 70 70 E +3 283 $276,841
T4 Jim Furyk 70 69 70 74 +4 +3 283 $276,841
9 Ernie Els 75 69 68 72 +2 +4 284 $200,280
T10 Casey Wittenberg 71 77 67 70 E +5 285 $163,594
T10 Retief Goosen 75 70 69 71 +1 +5 285 $163,594
T10 Kevin Chappell 74 71 68 72 +2 +5 285 $163,594
T10 John Senden 72 73 68 72 +2 +5 285 $163,594
T10 Lee Westwood 73 72 67 73 +3 +5 285 $163,594
T15 K.J. Choi 73 70 74 69 -1 +6 286 $118,969
T15 Steve Stricker 76 68 73 69 -1 +6 286 $118,969
T15 Adam Scott 76 70 70 70 E +6 286 $118,969
T15 Aaron Watkins 72 71 72 71 +1 +6 286 $118,969
T15 Martin Kaymer 74 71 69 72 +2 +6 286 $118,969
T15 Fredrik Jacobson 72 71 68 75 +5 +6 286 $118,969
Best of luck!
2013 US Open Final Round Betting Preview and Tips
Final Round Betting Preview
Favourite: Phil Mickelson 9/4
Undoubtedly
the favourite heading into the final round, Phil is swinging and
putting beautifully and has the advantage of being in the final group
today where he and Bones will forensically dissect every shot. One
caveat is Phil is not carrying a driver and it has taken him everything
in his power to negotiate the closing holes especially 18 without it.
So long the bridesmaid in his national championship, will this be the
one? It looks likely.Short Odds: Schwartzel 5/1, Stricker 7/1, Mahan 7/1, Rose 8/1, Donald 10/1
All
these players are within two shots of the lead. Luke Donald at 10/1
seems unreasonably long odds but the bookies will have picked up on the
fact that he did drop his shoulders yesterday on the 18th taking double
bogey. Donald is not out of this by any means however, his tempo for
all but his second shot to 18 yesterday was the best in the field and
his magical short game and putter has saved him time and again. Of the
leaders Luke has the worst GIR stats hitting only 35 of 54 greens; if he
can hit a few more greens in his final round, he could just bag his
first major. Playing with Justin Rose in third last group will help.Steve Stricker is 46, but has the best course management stats of the field. Interestingly Stricks was one of the few players to bounce back immediately from adversity on Saturday, following a double bogey on the ninth with birdies on the 10th and 12th. That proves he can press when needs really must. He’s been in only one bunker all week and looks to have the game to card another even par round today. This US Open wont be won, it will be survived, and Stricker is nothing if not a survivor.
For
Mahan: Hunter Mahan is loving this US Open. If you want stats, try this
one on for size, Hunter has only missed six fairways all week. He’s
not the best iron player hitting only 33 of 54 greens but with total
putts numbering 85 he has stuck right in there.For Schwartzel: 28 of 42 fairways, 36 of 54 greens hit, 1 of 4 sand saves yet right in there. A former Major Champion.
For Rose: Like Stricker, amazing course management job so far, the first time he’s really adopted this careful strategy. Held the big putts in the Ryder Cup when it counted. Brilliant pairing with Donald today, ahead of all the commotion.
Doc’s Value Bets: Jason Day 16/1, Rickie Fowler 33/1
One
of the few players to go under par on Saturday, Jason Day will go all
guns blazing at this final round. Day may not be straightest off the
tee, but he has still managed to hit 38 of 54 greens because of his
irons. With final round pins set to ultra tough, this will suit the
Aussie. When you get a guy who can birdie a 98 yard par three, then
birdie a 246 yard par three an hour later, you have to fancy he can
press today. Came close at the Masters twice now and has a solo US Open
second in 2011, I’m going each way on Day who is paired with Billy
Horschel today.
Of
all the field Rickie Fowler has made the most improvement so far. His
third round was, quite simply, incredible with one solitary bogey (on
the tough 5th) along with four birdies. With a GIR clip to date of 74%,
Fowler at 33/1 looks to be the value bet in the field. 
Graeme McDowell 30/1
I’m a big GMac fan but its stone cold stats that are directing me towards him for the US Open. Since winning in Pebble in 2010, Graeme tied 14th at Congressional in 2011 and tied second at Olympic Club last season. The shorter Merion layout should be right up GMac’s alley off the tee and with wins at the RBC Heritage and at the Matchplay on the tricky Thracian Cliffs, I’m getting it hard to find any negatives. The wet weather and soft course will bring a whole section of players into the mix, but nobody's put in more work in reconnaissance and on the Merion range than GMac. Michael Thompson 175/1
Another University of Alabama man, Michael Thompson seems another good fit for Merion. Thompson is a very good mid distance putter, something essential for this test, ranking in the top 10 all around from 10 to 25 feet from the hole. Since tying second last year, Thompson has won on Tour at the Honda Classic in early March, top 10’d at the WGC Cadillac and scored a very impressive tied eighth on the ultra-tough Muirfield Village layout last time out. My tip of the week and I’ve no doubt the bookies will trim the odds after this, so get to it before them! Angel Cabrera 75/1
Is this Glory’s Last Shot for 2007 Oakmont Champion Angel Cabrera? Since his playoff loss to Adam Scott at The Masters, Cabrera has played four PGA Tour events, making the cut in all and won on the PGA Latino America Tour at home in Argentina. It’s Pato’s 14 US Open and he’s only missed two cuts. We’ll know after five minutes if he fancies it! My thoughts are the softer greens will be in his favour and he has the power to tame those lengthy closing holes. Kevin Chappell 75/1
I’m delighted Kevin Chappell finished second behind Kuch at The Memorial because now people won’t think I’m a nutter for tipping him! It’s hard to see a player without a Tour victory winning a Major but Chappell has the perfect game for the biggest stage. The California man has played in two US Opens, he scored a solo third at Congressional in 2011 and tied 10th at Olympic Club in 2012. From 50 to 125 yards out, nobody on Tour hits it closer. Add being a great scrambler and even better bunker player into the mix and you have yourself a live contender from Fresno.With conditions set to be similar to those at Congressional, Chappell is worth a look.Matt Kuchar 22/1
Of the favourites, of course the hardened punters are going to take Tiger Woods at lengthening odds of 9/2, but at odds of 22/1 with bookies paying out top 5 and ties, Matt Kuchar looks a prudent bet. Won at the Memorial in fine style, never troubled, always in control of his game and his head. Four other top 10’s, a win in the desert matchplay, no missed cuts and a swing that’s in the slot make Kuch certainly deserving of your fiver each way. Merion Preview Video
Here’s a nice preview of the course at Merion, so you can do some of your own figuring:Power Rankings
Taking into account the top 5 bookmakers here are their combined Power Rankings- Tiger Woods
- Rory McIlroy
- Adam Scott
- Matt Kuchar
- Brandt Snedker
- Justin Rose
- Luke Donald
- Lee Westwood
- Graeme McDowell
- Phil Mickelson
Useful Info
and here’s a link to the golfpredictor site, for all the statistics and results you’ll ever need.
Here’s the top 15 from 2012 at The Olympic Club
1 Webb Simpson 72 73 68 68 -2 +1 281 $1,440,000
T2 Michael Thompson 66 75 74 67 -3 +2 282 $695,916
T2 Graeme McDowell 69 72 68 73 +3 +2 282 $695,916
T4 David Toms 69 70 76 68 -2 +3 283 $276,841
T4 Padraig Harrington 74 70 71 68 -2 +3 283 $276,841
T4 John Peterson 71 70 72 70 E +3 283 $276,841
T4 Jason Dufner 72 71 70 70 E +3 283 $276,841
T4 Jim Furyk 70 69 70 74 +4 +3 283 $276,841
9 Ernie Els 75 69 68 72 +2 +4 284 $200,280
T10 Casey Wittenberg 71 77 67 70 E +5 285 $163,594
T10 Retief Goosen 75 70 69 71 +1 +5 285 $163,594
T10 Kevin Chappell 74 71 68 72 +2 +5 285 $163,594
T10 John Senden 72 73 68 72 +2 +5 285 $163,594
T10 Lee Westwood 73 72 67 73 +3 +5 285 $163,594
T15 K.J. Choi 73 70 74 69 -1 +6 286 $118,969
T15 Steve Stricker 76 68 73 69 -1 +6 286 $118,969
T15 Adam Scott 76 70 70 70 E +6 286 $118,969
T15 Aaron Watkins 72 71 72 71 +1 +6 286 $118,969
T15 Martin Kaymer 74 71 69 72 +2 +6 286 $118,969
T15 Fredrik Jacobson 72 71 68 75 +5 +6 286 $118,969
Best of luck!
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